Wuhan Coronavirus

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B-Tender
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2701

Post by B-Tender »

Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:38 pm Image
I think the scariest thing right now is I'm agreeing with some of Biker's posts from his "feed".
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2702

Post by Stapes »

Image
I blame Biker.
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Animal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2703

Post by Animal »

Here's the good news report from the charts.

The increase in cases in the US seems to have leveled off again and it is EXACTLY on top of the peak of the acceleration in Italy. The model of Italy is really the only indication that this "might" be the peak of acceleration.

Italy and Spain and some of Europe seem to be continuing to show they are over the hump, even though they are still seeing new cases every day. italy should soon be down to a point where recoveries each day outnumber the new cases.

World wide deaths have gone down 2 days in a row (not much of a trend, but hope). I think NYCity has also seen a decrease in deaths the last day or two.

Although numbers in Texas are rising, Dallas has seen 4 days in a row where new cases were either flat or decreasing.

I only have ONE state in the USA that showed alarming numbers yesterday (an over 20% increase). Delaware. Other states that were over the "average" of increase (11%) were Louisiana, Puerto Rico, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, W Virginia, Washing DC.

I "think" that NY has reached the top of its acceleration. I know, statistically, its way too early to say that, but if we can depend on the model from Italy, its either now or ..........
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Animal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2704

Post by Animal »

Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:20 pm
If you think that Spain is over the hump, then youre not paying attention. This is going to be a rough week for them where their death totals will surpass Italys
you can't track deaths when you are looking for a slow down. the deaths are the last numbers to drop. you have to track new cases.
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Animal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2705

Post by Animal »

Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:26 pm
Flumper wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:22 pm
Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:20 pm
If you think that Spain is over the hump, then youre not paying attention. This is going to be a rough week for them where their death totals will surpass Italys
you can't track deaths when you are looking for a slow down. the deaths are the last numbers to drop. you have to track new cases.
Interesting.

Where are you finding your source? Im curious as to how the US's chart looks like
This is one of the best one. You can click on a country like "Spain". then you scroll down and it will give graphs of new cases, deaths, recoveries, etc. Then you can do that for US or any other country. Also, you can look at "yesterday" numbers. Which is often the best place to look because they are true picture. The "today" numbers are adjusting all day long as data comes in. Even late in the afternoon, the today numbers will go up over night so you don't know the exact numbers until the next day when you look at "yesterday" numbers. If that makes sense.

The reason you can't track deaths is because once a person gets ICU sick with this disease, they can be kept alive on a ventilator for weeks. WEEKS. Like 3 weeks sometimes. They will die, but they aren't dead yet. So, even if this virus died and went away, we would see huge death numbers for several weeks.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2706

Post by Reservoir Dog »

BigRedRetard wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:25 pm I find it interesting that countries with "FREE" healthcare are getting hit the worst. I guess you get what you pay for.
:roll:
CentralTexasCrude wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:00 am You both fucked up. You trusted me.
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Animal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2707

Post by Animal »

Reservoir Dog wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:31 pm
BigRedRetard wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:25 pm I find it interesting that countries with "FREE" healthcare are getting hit the worst. I guess you get what you pay for.
:roll:
it also seems to be hitting cities that have democratic mayors.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2708

Post by Wut »

BigRedRetard wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:25 pm I find it interesting that countries with "FREE" healthcare are getting hit the worst. I guess you get what you pay for.
USA?
wut?
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Animal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2709

Post by Animal »

Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:37 pm
Flumper wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:30 pm
Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:26 pm
Flumper wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:22 pm
Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:20 pm
If you think that Spain is over the hump, then youre not paying attention. This is going to be a rough week for them where their death totals will surpass Italys
you can't track deaths when you are looking for a slow down. the deaths are the last numbers to drop. you have to track new cases.
Interesting.

Where are you finding your source? Im curious as to how the US's chart looks like
This is one of the best one. You can click on a country like "Spain". then you scroll down and it will give graphs of new cases, deaths, recoveries, etc. Then you can do that for US or any other country. Also, you can look at "yesterday" numbers. Which is often the best place to look because they are true picture. The "today" numbers are adjusting all day long as data comes in. Even late in the afternoon, the today numbers will go up over night so you don't know the exact numbers until the next day when you look at "yesterday" numbers. If that makes sense.

The reason you can't track deaths is because once a person gets ICU sick with this disease, they can be kept alive on a ventilator for weeks. WEEKS. Like 3 weeks sometimes. They will die, but they aren't dead yet. So, even if this virus died and went away, we would see huge death numbers for several weeks.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Good point.

What do you think the multiplier is for the US when trying to estimate true numbers? Take a look at the UK where they have over a 10% mortality rate based on 47k cases. Surely the multiplier has to be at least 10, no?
i'm not really sure. I assume you are working backward from deaths to calculate actual cases. First of all, the deaths aren't accurate until its either over or a shit load of time has passed. For instance, Spain has around 800 deaths a day. Even if they had zero new cases for 2 weeks. that death rate would probably continue on some level for several weeks. So, the death rates are not accurate because a lot of the "dead" aren't dead yet.

BUT, I do believe that the actual death rate is going to be around 2%. Right now USA is showing a death rate of 2.7% and some people haven't died yet. But, I do think that the death rate from country to country will be around the same number statistically in the end. So, if a country has a death rate over 3%, then they are obviously not testing for all of the actual cases they have in their country. If they have a death rate less than 1% then they are probably lying about what people are dying from.

India and Russia have to be lying out their asses about the numbers of cases they have.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2710

Post by Wut »

Bermuda just went up to 37 and Worldometers reports Bermuda at 37 so it’s a nice little confirmation of their numbers.
wut?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2711

Post by FSchmertz »

It seems to me that the U.S. "Hot Spot" should include the Northeast area inclusive of Southern Connecticut, West to Pennsylvania (at least the Eastern part), and down to Delaware.

Not surprising, and I don't like being in the middle of this shit. :(

P.S. And "sorry" I'm not including New Orleans. Those folks are getting hammered too. :(
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Animal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2712

Post by Animal »

FSchmertz wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:12 pm It seems to me that the U.S. "Hot Spot" should include the Northeast area inclusive of Southern Connecticut, West to Pennsylvania (at least the Eastern part), and down to Delaware.

Not surprising, and I don't like being in the middle of this shit. :(

P.S. And "sorry" I'm not including New Orleans. Those folks are getting hammered too. :(
Louisiana has been on fire for a week or two now. Crazy. So has Michigan.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2713

Post by windrunner »

*yawn
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2714

Post by QillerDaemon »

Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:39 pm I read somewhere that NJ is about two weeks behind and the worst is yet to come.
It's also going to be bad, very bad, here in Florida. There is already some suspicion a lot of cases have gone un- or under-reported. And it's getting to be getting back to prime weather here. Not hot, not cold, near perfect springtime weather. People are coming down here in droves, even if they can't really go out or to the beaches. And there's lots of just basic ignoring the strong suggestions to stay home. And it certainly has not helped this state that both the current governor is and previous governor was more worried about "the bottom line" than keeping our state safe in these circumstances.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2715

Post by Animal »

QillerDaemon wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:04 pm
Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:39 pm I read somewhere that NJ is about two weeks behind and the worst is yet to come.
It's also going to be bad, very bad, here in Florida. There is already some suspicion a lot of cases have gone un- or under-reported. And it's getting to be getting back to prime weather here. Not hot, not cold, near perfect springtime weather. People are coming down here in droves, even if they can't really go out or to the beaches. And there's lots of just basic ignoring the strong suggestions to stay home. And it certainly has not helped this state that both the current governor is and previous governor was more worried about "the bottom line" than keeping our state safe in these circumstances.
Florida is either lying about numbers or their warm high humid weather is helping slow the virus.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2716

Post by megman »

Flumper wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:38 pm
QillerDaemon wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:04 pm
Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:39 pm I read somewhere that NJ is about two weeks behind and the worst is yet to come.
It's also going to be bad, very bad, here in Florida. There is already some suspicion a lot of cases have gone un- or under-reported. And it's getting to be getting back to prime weather here. Not hot, not cold, near perfect springtime weather. People are coming down here in droves, even if they can't really go out or to the beaches. And there's lots of just basic ignoring the strong suggestions to stay home. And it certainly has not helped this state that both the current governor is and previous governor was more worried about "the bottom line" than keeping our state safe in these circumstances.
Florida is either lying about numbers or their warm high humid weather is helping slow the virus.
If weather is a factor then Ecuador should be in better shape, right?

https://news.trust.org/item/20200404202149-8fizd
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2717

Post by megman »

BigRedRetard wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:16 pm
megman wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:11 pm
Flumper wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:38 pm
QillerDaemon wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:04 pm
Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:39 pm I read somewhere that NJ is about two weeks behind and the worst is yet to come.
It's also going to be bad, very bad, here in Florida. There is already some suspicion a lot of cases have gone un- or under-reported. And it's getting to be getting back to prime weather here. Not hot, not cold, near perfect springtime weather. People are coming down here in droves, even if they can't really go out or to the beaches. And there's lots of just basic ignoring the strong suggestions to stay home. And it certainly has not helped this state that both the current governor is and previous governor was more worried about "the bottom line" than keeping our state safe in these circumstances.
Florida is either lying about numbers or their warm high humid weather is helping slow the virus.
If weather is a factor then Ecuador should be in better shape, right?

https://news.trust.org/item/20200404202149-8fizd
I don't think weather is a factor as much as season is.
Ya, and it seems to coincide with the Flu season.
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Animal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2718

Post by Animal »

megman wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:11 pm
Flumper wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:38 pm
QillerDaemon wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:04 pm
Biker wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:39 pm I read somewhere that NJ is about two weeks behind and the worst is yet to come.
It's also going to be bad, very bad, here in Florida. There is already some suspicion a lot of cases have gone un- or under-reported. And it's getting to be getting back to prime weather here. Not hot, not cold, near perfect springtime weather. People are coming down here in droves, even if they can't really go out or to the beaches. And there's lots of just basic ignoring the strong suggestions to stay home. And it certainly has not helped this state that both the current governor is and previous governor was more worried about "the bottom line" than keeping our state safe in these circumstances.
Florida is either lying about numbers or their warm high humid weather is helping slow the virus.
If weather is a factor then Ecuador should be in better shape, right?

https://news.trust.org/item/20200404202149-8fizd
i get a lot of people saying "well if warm weather/humidity stop it, then why is Puerto Rico having cases, etc." The thing isn't that you can't get the virus in those places. The key is how quickly it spreads. Like I said, its simply a theory (like any other in this new thing we are watching). But, when you break things down on a "per capita" basis instead of just looking for numbers of cases, then it starts to make a bit more sense. At least, maybe it does.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2719

Post by Animal »

these numbers today look too good to be true. This sunday (palm sunday) must be a slow day collecting data.
WestTexasCrude

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2720

Post by WestTexasCrude »

I think one thing nobody has mentioned on the economic downside of all this BS. It may be the only economic recession (temporary) in the history of the US that the banks weren't involved or impacted. That's actually a major plus. Not sure how much the 2009 lessons were learned or just this has nothing to do with that.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2721

Post by CaptQuint »

Lets see out the banks are unaffected once the bankruptcies and defaults start
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2722

Post by WestTexasCrude »

CaptQuint wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:59 pm Lets see out the banks are unaffected once the bankruptcies and defaults start
Not happening. Everything is just kinda frozen in time. Bizarre shit.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2723

Post by CaptQuint »

A Tiger at the Bronx Zoo has Tested Positive for COVID-19

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/ ... r-covid-19
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2724

Post by Animal »

CaptQuint wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:59 pm Lets see out the banks are unaffected once the bankruptcies and defaults start
i agree.
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CaptQuint
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

#2725

Post by CaptQuint »

WestTexasCrude wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:05 pm
CaptQuint wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:59 pm Lets see out the banks are unaffected once the bankruptcies and defaults start
Not happening. Everything is just kinda frozen in time. Bizarre shit.
Great, now I gotta screenshot this too. Do you ever learn? Anything?
Any damn fool can navigate the world sober. It takes a really good sailor to do it drunk
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