Inflation cometh

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Cassandros
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Inflation cometh

#1

Post by Cassandros »

Diapers, Cereal and, Yes, Toilet Paper Are Going to Get More Expensive

Procter & Gamble is raising prices on items like Pampers and Tampax in September. Kimberly-Clark said in March that it will raise prices on Scott toilet paper, Huggies and Pull-Ups in June, a move that is “necessary to help offset significant commodity cost inflation.”

And General Mills, which makes cereal brands including Cheerios, is facing increased supply-chain and freight costs “in this higher-demand environment,” Kofi Bruce, the company’s chief financial officer, said on a call with analysts.

Full article
This article really tries hard to soften the blow and never touches on the main aggressor to this coming wave of inflation.

You can't keep pumping trillions of new money and not cause the price of goods to go up.

Almost every industry is seeing across-the-board price increases. In mine, some vendors are literally doing an 8% increase followed by another 8% in two weeks, and another 8% four weeks after that. And those cost, like any new cost to a business, gets passed down to the customer.

Sadly. I fully expect the foolish masses to use this as a rally to raise minimum wage --> completely blind to the fact that such a move only barely helps the poor and ultimately will make more people poor who used to be middle class as they lose the ability to keep up with, you guessed it, inflation.
“The society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither, the society that puts freedom before equality will end up with a great deal of both.” --Milton Friedman
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#2

Post by Animal »

this is why Biden's own economiest told him not to pass the last "trillion-y dollar so called covid" package. The economic benefits we are reaping right now are from what had already been done in 2020. the one he passed is just squirting way way way too much whip cream on an already good sundae. now its just fattening and inflation will be coming soon. gas prices are the leading edge.
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Re: Inflation cometh

#3

Post by Stapes »

Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:09 am this is why Biden's own economiest told him not to pass the last "trillion-y dollar so called covid" package. The economic benefits we are reaping right now are from what had already been done in 2020. the one he passed is just squirting way way way too much whip cream on an already good sundae. now its just fattening and inflation will be coming soon. gas prices are the leading edge.
What economist was that? Link?
I blame Biker.
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#4

Post by Animal »

Stapes wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:13 am
Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:09 am this is why Biden's own economiest told him not to pass the last "trillion-y dollar so called covid" package. The economic benefits we are reaping right now are from what had already been done in 2020. the one he passed is just squirting way way way too much whip cream on an already good sundae. now its just fattening and inflation will be coming soon. gas prices are the leading edge.
What economist was that? Link?
the Congressional Budget Office. You know, the ones that work for the United States that give opinions to the President to guide his decisions?
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Re: Inflation cometh

#5

Post by CHEEZY17 »

Prices will rise across the board and the apologists here will cheer.
Rising prices disproportionally hurt lower and middle income families but that doesnt matter because Biden isnt Trump.
"When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny."
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#6

Post by Animal »

CHEEZY17 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:21 am Prices will rise across the board and the apologists here will cheer.
Rising prices disproportionally hurt lower and middle income families but that doesnt matter because Biden isnt Trump.
when you work in an industry like mine, where you mark up prices by a percentage, inflation is a good thing as long as its happening to everyone at the same time. i would assume that same principle applies to other businesses.
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Cassandros
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Re: Inflation cometh

#7

Post by Cassandros »

Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 am
CHEEZY17 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:21 am Prices will rise across the board and the apologists here will cheer.
Rising prices disproportionally hurt lower and middle income families but that doesnt matter because Biden isnt Trump.
when you work in an industry like mine, where you mark up prices by a percentage, inflation is a good thing as long as its happening to everyone at the same time. i would assume that same principle applies to other businesses.
Can you elaborate on that?

Inflation from the business perspective is often a push, as the actual cost are passed to the customer.

How is across the board inflation a good thing? Especially for the customer who likely is not seeing his pay raise at the same rate as his costs.
“The society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither, the society that puts freedom before equality will end up with a great deal of both.” --Milton Friedman
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Burn1dwn
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Re: Inflation cometh

#8

Post by Burn1dwn »

Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 am
CHEEZY17 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:21 am Prices will rise across the board and the apologists here will cheer.
Rising prices disproportionally hurt lower and middle income families but that doesnt matter because Biden isnt Trump.
when you work in an industry like mine, where you mark up prices by a percentage, inflation is a good thing as long as its happening to everyone at the same time. i would assume that same principle applies to other businesses.
Fuck if I know how inflation will affect my industry. Last time inflation was an issue I was reading about it in Mad Magazine. The next time we deal with it, will be the first time I go through it as an adult.
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#9

Post by Animal »

Cassandros wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:33 am
Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 am
CHEEZY17 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:21 am Prices will rise across the board and the apologists here will cheer.
Rising prices disproportionally hurt lower and middle income families but that doesnt matter because Biden isnt Trump.
when you work in an industry like mine, where you mark up prices by a percentage, inflation is a good thing as long as its happening to everyone at the same time. i would assume that same principle applies to other businesses.
Can you elaborate on that?

Inflation from the business perspective is often a push, as the actual cost are passed to the customer.

How is across the board inflation a good thing? Especially for the customer who likely is not seeing his pay raise at the same rate as his costs.
no, its not a good thing for the customer. its a good thing for the business. when i bid construction jobs, we (as an industry) typically mark up our prices for profit (and some for overhead) with a percentage. That percentage will flucuate by the volume of work, competitiveness, etc. but for the most part it can be between 5 and 10%. so if you bid a job and materials and labor (etc) add up to $1 million, you would put $100k profit on it and hope to make that. If, however, prices soar and labor goes way up, that $1 million might become $1.5 million. Then you put $150k profit on it. For the same thing. nothing changed but the price of materials and labor.

obviously this is a condensed explanation. most all builders use some form of that same concept though. home builders, etc.
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Re: Inflation cometh

#10

Post by Stapes »

Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:09 am this is why Biden's own economiest told him not to pass the last "trillion-y dollar so called covid" package. The economic benefits we are reaping right now are from what had already been done in 2020. the one he passed is just squirting way way way too much whip cream on an already good sundae. now its just fattening and inflation will be coming soon. gas prices are the leading edge.
so...there was no "economist" who told him not to pass the stimulus package....got it. In fact econonmist felt the stimulus package was a good idea. Funny how we never hear from you fuckers when unneeded tax cuts are given to the 1% or billions for the military pig trough but raising the minimum wage marks the end of the world for you. Good thing your just small time greedy business owners and nobody is listening to you. If you can't pay a lving wage you shouldn't be in business.
I blame Biker.
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#11

Post by Animal »

Stapes wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:46 am
Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:09 am this is why Biden's own economiest told him not to pass the last "trillion-y dollar so called covid" package. The economic benefits we are reaping right now are from what had already been done in 2020. the one he passed is just squirting way way way too much whip cream on an already good sundae. now its just fattening and inflation will be coming soon. gas prices are the leading edge.
so...there was no "economist" who told him not to pass the stimulus package....got it. In fact econonmist felt the stimulus package was a good idea. Funny how we never hear from you fuckers when unneeded tax cuts are given to the 1% or billions for the military pig trough but raising the minimum wage marks the end of the world for you. Good thing your just small time greedy business owners and nobody is listening to you. If you can't pay a lving wage you shouldn't be in business.
you don't think the Congressional Budget Office has any economists? :lol: It is the one part of the government that actually crunches the numbers to gauge the effects of a policy before it is implemented. You know, economics.

and i have no opinion on the minimum wage, honestly. It doesn't affect me. Since I use these hispanic cheap laborers that I pay more than that. I would defer to the expertise of the people that employ people for those type wages and ask them what effect it will have. I certainly wouldn't just think I have some fairy dust to make it a good thing without knowing more about it.
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Re: Inflation cometh

#12

Post by Cassandros »

LOL@stapes inability to focus what matters.
“The society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither, the society that puts freedom before equality will end up with a great deal of both.” --Milton Friedman
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Cassandros
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Re: Inflation cometh

#13

Post by Cassandros »

Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:43 am
Cassandros wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:33 am
Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 am
CHEEZY17 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:21 am Prices will rise across the board and the apologists here will cheer.
Rising prices disproportionally hurt lower and middle income families but that doesnt matter because Biden isnt Trump.
when you work in an industry like mine, where you mark up prices by a percentage, inflation is a good thing as long as its happening to everyone at the same time. i would assume that same principle applies to other businesses.
Can you elaborate on that?

Inflation from the business perspective is often a push, as the actual cost are passed to the customer.

How is across the board inflation a good thing? Especially for the customer who likely is not seeing his pay raise at the same rate as his costs.
no, its not a good thing for the customer. its a good thing for the business. when i bid construction jobs, we (as an industry) typically mark up our prices for profit (and some for overhead) with a percentage. That percentage will flucuate by the volume of work, competitiveness, etc. but for the most part it can be between 5 and 10%. so if you bid a job and materials and labor (etc) add up to $1 million, you would put $100k profit on it and hope to make that. If, however, prices soar and labor goes way up, that $1 million might become $1.5 million. Then you put $150k profit on it. For the same thing. nothing changed but the price of materials and labor.

obviously this is a condensed explanation. most all builders use some form of that same concept though. home builders, etc.
OK, we are on the same wave length.

Honestly all that you said is why I don't usually worry about the business end of the inflation situation. Business will generally survive.

(Obvious except being small businesses).
“The society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither, the society that puts freedom before equality will end up with a great deal of both.” --Milton Friedman
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#14

Post by Animal »

Cassandros wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:06 am
Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:43 am
Cassandros wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:33 am
Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 am
CHEEZY17 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:21 am Prices will rise across the board and the apologists here will cheer.
Rising prices disproportionally hurt lower and middle income families but that doesnt matter because Biden isnt Trump.
when you work in an industry like mine, where you mark up prices by a percentage, inflation is a good thing as long as its happening to everyone at the same time. i would assume that same principle applies to other businesses.
Can you elaborate on that?

Inflation from the business perspective is often a push, as the actual cost are passed to the customer.

How is across the board inflation a good thing? Especially for the customer who likely is not seeing his pay raise at the same rate as his costs.
no, its not a good thing for the customer. its a good thing for the business. when i bid construction jobs, we (as an industry) typically mark up our prices for profit (and some for overhead) with a percentage. That percentage will flucuate by the volume of work, competitiveness, etc. but for the most part it can be between 5 and 10%. so if you bid a job and materials and labor (etc) add up to $1 million, you would put $100k profit on it and hope to make that. If, however, prices soar and labor goes way up, that $1 million might become $1.5 million. Then you put $150k profit on it. For the same thing. nothing changed but the price of materials and labor.

obviously this is a condensed explanation. most all builders use some form of that same concept though. home builders, etc.
OK, we are on the same wave length.

Honestly all that you said is why I don't usually worry about the business end of the inflation situation. Business will generally survive.

(Obvious except being small businesses).
the businesses that suffer first are the small ones that don't really understand how to price the work they perform. Maybe they ran crews for someone and then went out on their own. All they know are $/sf type numbers. and they don't have any idea how to ramp those up for inflation. If the price of concrete goes up $50 per cubic yard they have no idea how that affects their price to pour 4" thick flatwork for $4.00/sf. so they go busted pretty fast. The next one it hurts are the ones that bid jobs that don't start for a while and they are locked into old prices with a signed contract that starts after prices go up and they don't have the pull to lock suppliers into old prices.

the next ones to get hurt are the ones that do force suppliers to lock in prices and then prices go up and the suppliers suddenly "have trouble" filling their orders at the old prices when they don't seem to have a problem filling orders for the people paying the new higher prices. This happens all the time in my business. Its happening right now. Prices are going up so fast, you get locked numbers, but suddenly you can't get the volume you want when you want it because of all kinds of excuses. but the bottom line is they are making more on some customers and they get more shipment.

and then last, inflation means higher interest rates and that raises bond prices which means cities don't sell bonds and don't do infrastructure work. Right now money is so cheap the cities are pumping out work as fast as they can pass bond programs. But that will change and the government work will dry up.
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Re: Inflation cometh

#15

Post by Burn1dwn »

So what about raising interest rates? Isn't that supposedly one tool used to combat inflation? When will that start happening?
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#16

Post by Animal »

Burn1dwn wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:15 am So what about raising interest rates? Isn't that supposedly one tool used to combat inflation? When will that start happening?
the last i heard from the FED guy he said they weren't even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates. That won't happen until we are long into some inflation. and i mean several quarters of sustained inflation. and other than better CD rates at the bank, there are very few upsides of higher interest rates.

Ask Jimmy Carter about that.
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Burn1dwn
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Re: Inflation cometh

#17

Post by Burn1dwn »

Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:13 am
Cassandros wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:06 am
Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:43 am
Cassandros wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:33 am
Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 am
CHEEZY17 wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:21 am Prices will rise across the board and the apologists here will cheer.
Rising prices disproportionally hurt lower and middle income families but that doesnt matter because Biden isnt Trump.
when you work in an industry like mine, where you mark up prices by a percentage, inflation is a good thing as long as its happening to everyone at the same time. i would assume that same principle applies to other businesses.
Can you elaborate on that?

Inflation from the business perspective is often a push, as the actual cost are passed to the customer.

How is across the board inflation a good thing? Especially for the customer who likely is not seeing his pay raise at the same rate as his costs.
no, its not a good thing for the customer. its a good thing for the business. when i bid construction jobs, we (as an industry) typically mark up our prices for profit (and some for overhead) with a percentage. That percentage will flucuate by the volume of work, competitiveness, etc. but for the most part it can be between 5 and 10%. so if you bid a job and materials and labor (etc) add up to $1 million, you would put $100k profit on it and hope to make that. If, however, prices soar and labor goes way up, that $1 million might become $1.5 million. Then you put $150k profit on it. For the same thing. nothing changed but the price of materials and labor.

obviously this is a condensed explanation. most all builders use some form of that same concept though. home builders, etc.
OK, we are on the same wave length.

Honestly all that you said is why I don't usually worry about the business end of the inflation situation. Business will generally survive.

(Obvious except being small businesses).
If the price of concrete goes up $50 per cubic yard they have no idea how that affects their price to pour 4" thick flatwork for $4.00/sf. so they go busted pretty fast.
Isn't that what a slide rule is for? I understand it is tough math for a lot of people but anyone bidding concrete without being able to figure that shit out should be worrying about a lot more than inflation. Maybe they should just work for daily finish wages or something.
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Re: Inflation cometh

#18

Post by Charliesheen »

You have to raise prices to not only cover your current cost but also cover your replacement cost. If you don’t your cash flow will get squeezed big time.

One area where inflation helps the common man is when it comes to mortgages. 2500 bucks a month might seem like a lot in today’s dollars, but give it three years of rapid inflation and that mortgage payments impact on your cash flow could go Down as much as 50%.
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AnalHamster
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Re: Inflation cometh

#19

Post by AnalHamster »

1.3%. It's really not very high.
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Re: Inflation cometh

#20

Post by necronomous »

AnalHamster wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:44 am 1.3%. It's really not very high.
I hope the poor people think the same.
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Charliesheen
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Re: Inflation cometh

#21

Post by Charliesheen »

Food and fuel and rents/home prices have skyrocketed here.
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#22

Post by Animal »

Burn1dwn wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:21 amIsn't that what a slide rule is for? I understand it is tough math for a lot of people but anyone bidding concrete without being able to figure that shit out should be worrying about a lot more than inflation. Maybe they should just work for daily finish wages or something.
well that's what a slide rule was for 50 years ago. The point is that many people in the construction business are in it because they know how to figure things out and build them, not because they know how to do math. As simple as that might seem to some people, there are many small contractors that can't do simple math. They learned from the ground up and they have every skill required to do the job except math. And math isn't really a skill you can learn from watching a guy beside you build a curb or shape a wheel chair ramp out of concrete. Same with roofers or drywall guys or whatever. They bid jobs by the square foot or linear foot or square yard or number of shingles or something simple and they just learn those prices and they go into business. Some adjust and learn and some get weeded out because of it.
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Re: Inflation cometh

#23

Post by pork »

there is a larger issus at hand. the suppliers are sitting on inventory...especially in lumber. there are warehouses filled with it and they are trickling it out to keep the prices up. typically that will turn into the opposite effect
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Animal
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Re: Inflation cometh

#24

Post by Animal »

pork wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:49 pm there is a larger issus at hand. the suppliers are sitting on inventory...especially in lumber. there are warehouses filled with it and they are trickling it out to keep the prices up. typically that will turn into the opposite effect
i doubt the suppliers are doing that on purpose if that is the case. I would suspect that there is so much of a labor shortage that they can't come close to the demand for lumber orders being made around he country. The demand for houses right now is at insane levels. There just are not enough skilled tradesmen to do all of the work.
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Re: Inflation cometh

#25

Post by pork »

Animal wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:54 pm
pork wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:49 pm there is a larger issus at hand. the suppliers are sitting on inventory...especially in lumber. there are warehouses filled with it and they are trickling it out to keep the prices up. typically that will turn into the opposite effect
i doubt the suppliers are doing that on purpose if that is the case. I would suspect that there is so much of a labor shortage that they can't come close to the demand for lumber orders being made around he country. The demand for houses right now is at insane levels. There just are not enough skilled tradesmen to do all of the work.
in ca we are out of dirt. the construction shortage isnt driving the market. im telling right now...they are sitting on inventory across the sectors. that is driving price. its even in my business. appraisers are driving the market because of demand. they have 3x' plus their fees over the past year
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