Wuhan Coronavirus

[AnalHamster]

The US has screwed the pooch on testing, the rates are underestimated because you can't test people efficiently.

what does the superior Great britain testing model do to control the spread of the virus in your country?

The UK has handled the virus so poorly that they are now in herd immunity mode.

Everyone is in herd immunity mode, your incompetent potus just hasn't admitted it yet.

[Animal]

The US has screwed the pooch on testing, the rates are underestimated because you can't test people efficiently.

what does the superior Great britain testing model do to control the spread of the virus in your country?

It assists in containment, notifying people who have been exposed that they have been so that they can self quarantine. The openly avowed aim here is to get to herd immunity, which is 60% or so infected and recovered, that is how you stop the spread in the absence of any vaccine or treatment. It cannot be stopped, only slowed so that the medical services are not overwhelmed and have time to ramp up. Trump will get there after lying to you for another week or two.

can you link an article where the Great British government has publicly said that they are enacting herd immunity?

[megman]

The US has screwed the pooch on testing, the rates are underestimated because you can't test people efficiently.

what does the superior Great britain testing model do to control the spread of the virus in your country?

SHUT BRITAIN Boris Johnson tells 1.4m they must stay in for 12 WEEKS and everyone else should avoid going out

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11184059/ ... a-meeting/

[AnalHamster]

The US has screwed the pooch on testing, the rates are underestimated because you can't test people efficiently.

what does the superior Great britain testing model do to control the spread of the virus in your country?

It assists in containment, notifying people who have been exposed that they have been so that they can self quarantine. The openly avowed aim here is to get to herd immunity, which is 60% or so infected and recovered, that is how you stop the spread in the absence of any vaccine or treatment. It cannot be stopped, only slowed so that the medical services are not overwhelmed and have time to ramp up. Trump will get there after lying to you for another week or two.

can you link an article where the Great British government has publicly said that they are enacting herd immunity?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -dangerous

Sure, the PM held a press conference and said so. Take a breath and try to think about it for a moment. There is no natural immunity, a vaccine will take 12-18 months. Just what the fuck do you think is the alternative? The aim is simply to reach herd immunity as fast as possible without overwhelming the health service. Pretty simple.

[Animal]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -dangerous

Sure, the PM held a press conference and said so. Take a breath and try to think about it for a moment. There is no natural immunity, a vaccine will take 12-18 months. Just what the fuck do you think is the alternative? The aim is simply to reach herd immunity as fast as possible without overwhelming the health service. Pretty simple.

but you said that "herd immunity" is what the US is doing except Trump is just lying to us that we aren't doing it. So, I asked you where the Great British government has publicly said that they are implementing "herd immunity" as a strategy to contain the virus?

[FreakShowFanatic]

For those who don't know:
What is herd immunity and why is it important?

In theory, herd immunity means not everyone in a community needs to be immune to prevent spread of disease. If a high enough proportion of individuals in a population are immune, the majority will protect the few susceptible people because the pathogen is less likely to find a susceptible person.

[Animal]

For those who don't know:
What is herd immunity and why is it important?

In theory, herd immunity means not everyone in a community needs to be immune to prevent spread of disease. If a high enough proportion of individuals in a population are immune, the majority will protect the few susceptible people because the pathogen is less likely to find a susceptible person.

actually, herd immunity in this particular instance is sort of like treating your backyard for mosquitoes when none of the neighbors are treating their yards for mosquitoes.

[FreakShowFanatic]

For those who don't know:
What is herd immunity and why is it important?

In theory, herd immunity means not everyone in a community needs to be immune to prevent spread of disease. If a high enough proportion of individuals in a population are immune, the majority will protect the few susceptible people because the pathogen is less likely to find a susceptible person.

actually, herd immunity in this particular instance is sort of like treating your backyard for mosquitoes when none of the neighbors are treating their yards for mosquitoes.

& what happens, we still get rid of the mosquitoes?

[Animal]

For those who don't know:
What is herd immunity and why is it important?

In theory, herd immunity means not everyone in a community needs to be immune to prevent spread of disease. If a high enough proportion of individuals in a population are immune, the majority will protect the few susceptible people because the pathogen is less likely to find a susceptible person.

actually, herd immunity in this particular instance is sort of like treating your backyard for mosquitoes when none of the neighbors are treating their yards for mosquitoes.

& what happens, we still get rid of the mosquitoes?

no. its a game that either everyone plays or it doesn't work. unless you seal your borders.

[Nero]

I heard on the radio today that some new world-wide statistics that they are beginning to put together suggest that each person that gets the virus typically infects 2 to 4 people. So each 1 case leads to 2-4 new cases.

Its kind of hard to take those numbers (by themselves) and project spread rates (along with the bajillion other factors that come into play) but i guess you can generalize and say that an infected person probably infects 3 people every 5 days.

So what would be a safe multiplier for known cases? 3?

I was just playing with numbers. There are so many factors to consider. The biggest factor is how many days does it take one person to infect 3? Do they do that in the first 2 days they have it or what?

If they do it in the first 5 days, for example. then

Day 0 = 1 person infected
Day 5 = 4 people infected (1 original plus 3 he infected)
Day 10 = 13 people (4 people from day 5 plus the 9 that the new 3 infected)
Day 15 = 40 people (13 from day 10 plus the 27 that the new 9 infected)
Day 20 = 121 people (40 from day 15 plus the 81 that the new 27 infected)
and so on. plus, on day 15, you would have to subtract the people from day 0 because they either died or were cured. On day 20 you subtract the day 5 people, etc.

On around day 103 you would have enough spread to infect the entire human race. (if you can only get it once)

I figured

2^33= 8589934592
8589934592*.02= 171,798,691
Current estimated global poplation 7,769,581,168*.02= 155,391,623

I didn't figure in the deaths or quartine starting at day 15 and split the death rate that I've seen reported between 1-3%. Either way, 28 Day's Later is coming to life if these fuckers wake up.

[Stapes]

Both Prince Charles and the Queen are in the higher risk groups. Prince William could set himself up nicely with a well timed handshake and hug.

[FSchmertz]

For those who don't know:
What is herd immunity and why is it important?

In theory, herd immunity means not everyone in a community needs to be immune to prevent spread of disease. If a high enough proportion of individuals in a population are immune, the majority will protect the few susceptible people because the pathogen is less likely to find a susceptible person.

My understanding is that this is highly dependent on how contagious the disease is. I believe, for instance, that herd immunity for measles would require 92-95% of the population to be immune to protect those who weren't immune.

So far, it's looking like coronavirus is very contagious.

[Animal]

I figured

2^33= 8589934592
8589934592*.02= 171,798,691
Current estimated global poplation 7,769,581,168*.02= 155,391,623

I didn't figure in the deaths or quartine starting at day 15 and split the death rate that I've seen reported between 1-3%. Either way, 28 Day's Later is coming to life if these fuckers wake up.

i don't think that even in a lab a virus could grow that fast. I think you are figuring the cases to double every single day? I mean, you are taking the virus inside one person and expecting that virus to mutate fast enough to infect 8 million people in 28 days? I know the math works, but I don't think that's much of a reality. However, even in my math, I came up with 103 days, which isn't all that much different when you think about it. 3-1/2 months? its been 2-1/2 already since this started in China and on my model we would be over 7 million people infected after that many days and we are WAY under that.

[FSchmertz]

Both Prince Charles and the Queen are in the higher risk groups. Prince William could set himself up nicely with a well timed handshake and hug.

I'm sure sneezing on the queen and son would "just not be done"!

P.S. SARS, another coronavirus, is listed as 50 to 80%, so 60% might not do.

[Animal]

I figured

2^33= 8589934592
8589934592*.02= 171,798,691
Current estimated global poplation 7,769,581,168*.02= 155,391,623

I didn't figure in the deaths or quartine starting at day 15 and split the death rate that I've seen reported between 1-3%. Either way, 28 Day's Later is coming to life if these fuckers wake up.

i don't think that even in a lab a virus could grow that fast. I think you are figuring the cases to double every single day? I mean, you are taking the virus inside one person and expecting that virus to mutate fast enough to infect 8 million people in 28 days? I know the math works, but I don't think that's much of a reality. However, even in my math, I came up with 103 days, which isn't all that much different when you think about it. 3-1/2 months? its been 2-1/2 already since this started in China and on my model we would be over 7 million people infected after that many days and we are WAY under that.

If I adjust my model down to where each person infects 3 people during the span of 6.5 days, then I get a model close to what the world has right now.
In that model, it takes about 135 days to infect the world's population. But, I suspect even that number would be greatly wrong since the spread in China is almost 0 right now.

[Stapes]

Food for thought. Some of the data coming out of China is that people with Type A blood seem to be more at risk of contracting the virus and more likely to have a severe reaction to it as compared to Type O. I'm O positive so, yay me.

[Nero]

I figured

2^33= 8589934592
8589934592*.02= 171,798,691
Current estimated global poplation 7,769,581,168*.02= 155,391,623

I didn't figure in the deaths or quartine starting at day 15 and split the death rate that I've seen reported between 1-3%. Either way, 28 Day's Later is coming to life if these fuckers wake up.

i don't think that even in a lab a virus could grow that fast. I think you are figuring the cases to double every single day? I mean, you are taking the virus inside one person and expecting that virus to mutate fast enough to infect 8 million people in 28 days? I know the math works, but I don't think that's much of a reality. However, even in my math, I came up with 103 days, which isn't all that much different when you think about it. 3-1/2 months? its been 2-1/2 already since this started in China and on my model we would be over 7 million people infected after that many days and we are WAY under that.

Agreed, it's highly aggressive and not realistic. On a purely mathematical level, I've had to use it with a few co-workers that are being complete idiots about how virulent it could be. On the upside, this model works for anyone talking to you about multilevel marketing.

[Nero]

Good news if you owe taxes.

Taxpayers and businesses will have until July 15, 2020 to pay their taxes this year, but the filing deadline is still April 15, for now.

https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/tax- ... s-irs-news

[FreakShowFanatic]

I figured

2^33= 8589934592
8589934592*.02= 171,798,691
Current estimated global poplation 7,769,581,168*.02= 155,391,623

I didn't figure in the deaths or quartine starting at day 15 and split the death rate that I've seen reported between 1-3%. Either way, 28 Day's Later is coming to life if these fuckers wake up.

i don't think that even in a lab a virus could grow that fast. I think you are figuring the cases to double every single day? I mean, you are taking the virus inside one person and expecting that virus to mutate fast enough to infect 8 million people in 28 days? I know the math works, but I don't think that's much of a reality. However, even in my math, I came up with 103 days, which isn't all that much different when you think about it. 3-1/2 months? its been 2-1/2 already since this started in China and on my model we would be over 7 million people infected after that many days and we are WAY under that.

Agreed, it's highly aggressive and not realistic. On a purely mathematical level, I've had to use it with a few co-workers that are being complete idiots about how virulent it could be. On the upside, this model works for anyone talking to you about multilevel marketing.

I agree too. This mutha fucka is so contagious that it's off the charts. Thank god the mortality rate is low but how in god's name does this virus infect people like this? It's like you're a football field away and you'll still get sick by it. My god.

[Animal]

I agree too. This mutha fucka is so contagious that it's off the charts. Thank god the mortality rate is low but how in god's name does this virus infect people like this? It's like you're a football field away and you'll still get sick by it. My god.

maybe they will find that it is transmitted by toilet paper and hand sanitizer.

[FreakShowFanatic]

Aww, you racist fag. Does it make you sad that there is next to nobody in El Salvador that has the virus in my wife's town? Damn bitch, I feel sorry for you.

[FreakShowFanatic]

You know what Biker, I honestly think you're an above average intelligent person & you probably take great care of your kids, and wife. It's just that sometimes you need to listen to other people & educate yourself a bit more. Peace out, for now.

[B-Tender]

Good news if you owe taxes.

Taxpayers and businesses will have until July 15, 2020 to pay their taxes this year, but the filing deadline is still April 15, for now.

https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/tax- ... s-irs-news

Thank fucking god they didn't extend the filing deadline.

[B-Tender]

Good news if you owe taxes.

Taxpayers and businesses will have until July 15, 2020 to pay their taxes this year, but the filing deadline is still April 15, for now.

https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/tax- ... s-irs-news

Thank fucking god they didn't extend the filing deadline.

You dont think thats a good compromise?

I do. I'm great with extending the deadline to pay. I just didn't want to have to be in the office an xtra 3 months.

[WestTexasCrude]

The United States experienced the largest 24-hour jump in the coronavirus death toll since the outbreak was discovered in the country.

Health officials reported that 18 people in the U.S. died from the virus on Monday, the most on any one day so far, according to the Washington Post. The total number of U.S. deaths from the virus is now up to at least 88.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... ak-started

I think its pretty safe to say that every single day will have larger numbers than the day before until this curve flattens or begins to drop. We would need a WTC projection to know exactly when that curve might peak, but right now its not doing that.

I'm hopeful that one of 3 things (or all) starts to show promise:

1. the vaccine they are testing.
2. all of these distancing strategies.
3. warmer weather.
[/quote} / Getting my charts together.