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Stapes wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:30 pm
I have been watching Gov. Cuomo the past couple days. It is a breath of fresh air to see a politician who has a command of the facts and can convey his thoughts in a straight forward and comprehensive manner. What is going on, what we should expect, what we need to do and why we need to do it. No stumbling over words from a teleprompter, no straying off topic into petty grievances and false public relations spin. Forget Dem or Repub ,it's nice to see what leadership looks like.
Agreed. Hopefully it isn't just a "moment" like it appears to have been when Rudy did the same thing after 9/11.
Stapes wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:30 pm
I have been watching Gov. Cuomo the past couple days. It is a breath of fresh air to see a politician who has a command of the facts and can convey his thoughts in a straight forward and comprehensive manner. What is going on, what we should expect, what we need to do and why we need to do it. No stumbling over words from a teleprompter, no straying off topic into petty grievances and false public relations spin. Forget Dem or Repub ,it's nice to see what leadership looks like.
Agreed. Hopefully it isn't just a "moment" like it appears to have been when Rudy did the same thing after 9/11.
Rudy did lots of shitty stuff before he became "America's Mayor." People just forgot momentarily.
BigRedRetard wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:21 pm
Current mortality rate is 0.0427137584479238.
Compared to what? Lol. That number means absolutely nothing.
Total number of infections divided by total number of deaths. This is based on world wide totals.
If you go by the number of cases that have had an outcome, the mortality rate is 12%.
please tell me you completely understand why that is crazy talk. please.
Perhaps you should explain it to me.
Okay. Let's only look at one statistic. "Recovered". Do you know what it takes to move into that category and how long that process is? You don't get to be considered "recovered" until long after you are no longer symptomatic. In other words, look at your wife for example. If she had died from this, about what day do you think that would have happened? Day 5 or 6? Well, she won't be considered "recovered" for probably 3 weeks. So the long and short of it is that you get the virus, you can quickly move into the "dead" column or you can very very slowly move into the "recovered" column.
And if you factor in how quickly people are being added to the "infected" list, you can begin to see why this makes such a huge difference.
Granted, 2 years from now, you will be able to do the math you are suggesting to get pretty accurate information. You just can't do it this early.
Was it Cuomo or Blasio that, just a few days ago, said something like "we will never have a complete lockdown in NYC. That would create complete panic. We just can't do it". And then about 2 or maybe 3 days later they did just that.
Flumper wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:02 pm
Was it Cuomo or Blasio that, just a few days ago, said something like "we will never have a complete lockdown in NYC. That would create complete panic. We just can't do it". And then about 2 or maybe 3 days later they did just that.
I believe he said "quarantine" which would consist of legal penalties for disobeying shelter in place restrictions. I don't believe they are there yet. Just restricting non-essential business and recommending social distancing.
Compared to what? Lol. That number means absolutely nothing.
Total number of infections divided by total number of deaths. This is based on world wide totals.
If you go by the number of cases that have had an outcome, the mortality rate is 12%.
please tell me you completely understand why that is crazy talk. please.
Perhaps you should explain it to me.
Okay. Let's only look at one statistic. "Recovered". Do you know what it takes to move into that category and how long that process is? You don't get to be considered "recovered" until long after you are no longer symptomatic. In other words, look at your wife for example. If she had died from this, about what day do you think that would have happened? Day 5 or 6? Well, she won't be considered "recovered" for probably 3 weeks. So the long and short of it is that you get the virus, you can quickly move into the "dead" column or you can very very slowly move into the "recovered" column.
And if you factor in how quickly people are being added to the "infected" list, you can begin to see why this makes such a huge difference.
Granted, 2 years from now, you will be able to do the math you are suggesting to get pretty accurate information. You just can't do it this early.
This also doesn't account for everyone who has it, but hasn't gotten tested because it doesn't effect them enough to go get tested.
Compared to what? Lol. That number means absolutely nothing.
Total number of infections divided by total number of deaths. This is based on world wide totals.
If you go by the number of cases that have had an outcome, the mortality rate is 12%.
please tell me you completely understand why that is crazy talk. please.
Perhaps you should explain it to me.
So the long and short of it is that you get the virus, you can quickly move into the "dead" column or you can very very slowly move into the "recovered" column.
If you need an analogy, lets use the cocaine trade. The cocaine moves very fast into the US because the Mexican Cartels have streamlined the shipments (death). However, the money moves back very slow (the recovered) because it takes up more space and originates in the US. If the Colombians judged their profits off real time, they would grossly underestimating them. It is necessary to wait until all the money comes back before deciding if it is a worthwhile endeavor. Sorry. Been binging Narcos Mexico.
Burn1dwn wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:45 pm
If you need an analogy, lets use the cocaine trade.
A better analogy would be if you took 1,000 people to the edge of a lake. Then you told all of them to dive in and swim to the other side. After 10 minutes you went and counted how many were on the bank and there was one on the other side of the lake and 30 on the same side you started. You called the 30 that quit (never dove in) because they were scared "dead" and the 1 on the other side that swam in record time "recovered". Those 31 people are the "closed cases".
What you haven't considered are the 969 people that are still swimming.
yeah, i never really thought about the training aspect of it. i just kept thinking that by July, surely we can travel. I guess even that is looking more and more dismal. Even if we get our arms around this here in the US (and my numbers are still showing a break in the upward trend). Even if we get it to slow or no growth at all, we are going to have to still remain isolated in order to keep it from starting all over again. Even with one case in Bumfuck, Egypt that might morph into what came out of Wuhan, this could start all over again.
Of course, next time we can nominate Stapes as "Testing Czar" and he can test all the hot spots before we know about them and determine where sick people are before they know they are sick.
Burn1dwn wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:45 pm
If you need an analogy, lets use the cocaine trade.
A better analogy would be if you took 1,000 people to the edge of a lake. Then you told all of them to dive in and swim to the other side. After 10 minutes you went and counted how many were on the bank and there was one on the other side of the lake and 30 on the same side you started. You called the 30 that quit (never dove in) because they were scared "dead" and the 1 on the other side that swam in record time "recovered". Those 31 people are the "closed cases".
What you haven't considered are the 969 people that are still swimming.
That probably works better but I think it should be a river (specifically the Rio Grande) instead of lake because who swims across a lake?
Burn1dwn wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:45 pm
If you need an analogy, lets use the cocaine trade.
A better analogy would be if you took 1,000 people to the edge of a lake. Then you told all of them to dive in and swim to the other side. After 10 minutes you went and counted how many were on the bank and there was one on the other side of the lake and 30 on the same side you started. You called the 30 that quit (never dove in) because they were scared "dead" and the 1 on the other side that swam in record time "recovered". Those 31 people are the "closed cases".
What you haven't considered are the 969 people that are still swimming.
That probably works better but I think it should be a river (specifically the Rio Grande) instead of lake because who swims across a lake?
The lake I've been going to since I was born is about 2 miles wide and I have the goal of swimming across it this summer or the next, on a damn weekday with a safety boat so those chicago idiots don't hit me with their oversized speed boats.
If life were fair every guy's dick would be the same size.
Burn1dwn wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:45 pm
If you need an analogy, lets use the cocaine trade.
A better analogy would be if you took 1,000 people to the edge of a lake. Then you told all of them to dive in and swim to the other side. After 10 minutes you went and counted how many were on the bank and there was one on the other side of the lake and 30 on the same side you started. You called the 30 that quit (never dove in) because they were scared "dead" and the 1 on the other side that swam in record time "recovered". Those 31 people are the "closed cases".
What you haven't considered are the 969 people that are still swimming.
That probably works better but I think it should be a river (specifically the Rio Grande) instead of lake because who swims across a lake?
The lake I've been going to since I was born is about 2 miles wide and I have the goal of swimming across it this summer or the next, on a damn weekday with a safety boat so those chicago idiots don't hit me with their oversized speed boats.
It's doable, 'cause I've done it.
Recommend first light, it'll cut down on the time you have to dodge powerboats. Those guys'll be still sleeping off the last nights partying.
Good luck when you do it!
P.S. And rivers with any flow are really hard to swim anywhere in. Can't fight that current!
i was talking to someone the other day and they brought up the press conference where Trump jumped down the reporters throat that asked "So, many americans are scared to death right now and freaking out and desperate....blah blah blah" and trump told him he was a terrible reporter, etc. I watched that news conference and, although it was a little out of place, it sort of reminded me of a football coach that gets asked a stupid question and he's tired of answering stupid questions. I just sort of shrugged it off as petty compared to the pandemic that is going on.
But they insisted to keep going and make a point. He said, "That was his moment to give us hope. To tell us things would be okay. And instead he was the usual jerk that he is. That's why I can't stand him, blah blah blah". I said, "he did say all of those things in that press conference. He said many times during that news conference that we will win. We will beat this. etc."
They never hear any of that because their filters tune out that stuff in search of the things they can blame on him.
FSchmertz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:06 pm
Isn't standard to put the blame on the leader when shit hits the fan?
Taking some of the blame comes with the job. You shouldn't seek it without realizing that.
It doesn't seem to matter if they really couldn't do anything about it. And it appears his administration could've done better.
P.S. Do you think any President would escape blame in this instance? There'd always be something to criticize.
no question about that. but it just seems like the finger pointing and blame should wait until after everyone has rolled up their sleeves and asked 'what can i do to help'.
FSchmertz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:06 pm
Isn't standard to put the blame on the leader when shit hits the fan?
Taking some of the blame comes with the job. You shouldn't seek it without realizing that.
It doesn't seem to matter if they really couldn't do anything about it. And it appears his administration could've done better.
P.S. Do you think any President would escape blame in this instance? There'd always be something to criticize.
no question about that. but it just seems like the finger pointing and blame should wait until after everyone has rolled up their sleeves and asked 'what can i do to help'.
but that's just me.
So the blame doesn't belong to a sitting president who downplayed the severity of a plague virus because it made for bad TV and we're all now behind the eight-ball because of it? I think he deserves quite a lot of blame but that's just me
Stapes wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm
So the blame doesn't belong to a sitting president who downplayed the severity of a plague virus because it made for bad TV and we're all now behind the eight-ball because of it? I think he deserves quite a lot of blame but that's just me
Stapes wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm
So the blame doesn't belong to a sitting president who downplayed the severity of a plague virus because it made for bad TV and we're all now behind the eight-ball because of it? I think he deserves quite a lot of blame but that's just me
I already knew that was just you.
You have your thoughts on the subject and I have mine.
Stapes wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm
So the blame doesn't belong to a sitting president who downplayed the severity of a plague virus because it made for bad TV and we're all now behind the eight-ball because of it? I think he deserves quite a lot of blame but that's just me
have you heard that most of the large "hot spots" have asked that they quit testing everyone that wants one and go back to only testing the ones that are showing symptoms necessary of a hospital visit? wasting way too much PPE, manpower, and wasted tests on people that don't need them.
Stapes wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm
So the blame doesn't belong to a sitting president who downplayed the severity of a plague virus because it made for bad TV and we're all now behind the eight-ball because of it? I think he deserves quite a lot of blame but that's just me
have you heard that most of the large "hot spots" have asked that they quit testing everyone that wants one and go back to only testing the ones that are showing symptoms necessary of a hospital visit? wasting way too much PPE, manpower, and wasted tests on people that don't need them.
thanks for your great advice.
Because there isn't enough quipment.......... Gosh if only someone in-the-know had acted sooner and prepared better...... I know it's a very hard concept to wrap your mind around
