Doesnt show any flattening....'specially you 'Mericans.
It shows flattening of the rate of increase in new cases.
and that is exactly the data that you want to look for.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:18 pm
by Animal
one more chart.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:24 pm
by CaptQuint
The commander of USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) asked U.S. Pacific Fleet leadership to take his crew off his carrier and send them all into quarantine ashore on Guam, as a COVID-19 outbreak on the carrier spreads at an accelerating rate, according to a Monday letter obtained by USNI News.
Capt. Brett Crozier wrote Pacific Fleet leadership asking for more resources to effectively isolate his crew and fight the virus, a Navy official who verified the authenticity of the letter USNI News on Tuesday. Contents of the letter were first reported by The San Francisco Chronicle on Tuesday. Last week the carrier was sent pier-side to Guam after three sailors tested positive for COIVD-19 and were shipped to a nearby hospital.
The ship was sent pier-side to test sailors and isolate those who were infected from the rest of the crew.
“No one on the crew will be allowed to leave anywhere into Guam other than on pier-side. And we are already starting the process of testing 100 percent of the crew to ensure that we’ve got that contained,” Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly told reporters last week.
Since then, the crew has been isolated to the pier and kept separate from the rest of the military and civilian population on the island while the testing continued. Crozier said from their experiences the testing and isolation regime has been ineffective due to tight quarters on the ship.
“Testing has no direct influence on the spread of the COVID-19 virus. It merely confirms the presence of the virus. Due to the close quarters required on a warship and the current number of positive cases, every single Sailor, regardless of rank, onboard the TR must be considered ‘close contact’ in accordance with the [Navy guidance],” he wrote. “Testing will only be useful as the ship returns to work after isolation or quarantine to confirm the effectiveness of the quarantine period. Our focus now must be on quarantine and isolation in strict compliance with CDC and [Navy] guidance.”
Doesnt show any flattening....'specially you 'Mericans.
It shows flattening of the rate of increase in new cases.
and that is exactly the data that you want to look for.
I wonder if you tracked the daily tests being administered the same way as you did new cases if it would correlate at all with your graph. There have been 2-3 days in a row that we had the same numbers of new infected before. Then it spikes with no real pattern. Just looking at it from a different angle.
Doesnt show any flattening....'specially you 'Mericans.
It shows flattening of the rate of increase in new cases.
and that is exactly the data that you want to look for.
I wonder if you tracked the daily tests being administered the same way as you did new cases if it would correlate at all with your graph. There have been 2-3 days in a row that we had the same numbers of new infected before. Then it spikes with no real pattern. Just looking at it from a different angle.
the absolute most frustrating part about tracking data is how the data is collected. If they change the method of collecting, then it changes everything. I think a lot of the spikes that we see tend to relate to the way the data is reported, not collected (testing). There are delays in the reports showing numbers down one day and then spiking the next day when they finally report them. its not an exact science, but even bad data can develop trends and that's all that i'm looking for. i don't care if 1,000 are infected or a billion are infected, i just want to know how the numbers are increasing (or decreasing).
someone sent me a projection a while ago saying that by early may Texas should have 4,100 deaths by their model (a university model). Right now Texas has 47 deaths. To get to 4,100 deaths, we would have to have around 275,000 cases in the state of texas. I just don't see it in my models. not even close. I realize that could change.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:38 pm
by Burn1dwn
Even if you have perfect data, there will still be kooks out there using the numbers the wrong way.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:42 pm
by B-Tender
Burn1dwn wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:38 pm
Even if you have perfect data, there will still be kooks out there using the numbers the wrong way.
Yep, statistics and lamposts.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:52 pm
by megman
Survey says 64% of surveys are wrong.....
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:55 pm
by B-Tender
megman wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:52 pm
Survey says 64% of surveys are wrong.....
Either those nips are pierced, or he has some of the weirdest fucking nipples known to man. I almost don't want to know the answer.
He looks like he is transitioning.
It's OK, he's a democrat.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:19 pm
by Animal
he's bound be wearing some kind of bullet vest under that shirt.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:21 pm
by Antknot
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:25 pm
by CaptQuint
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:27 pm
by Animal
well, fuck. big spike across the board yesterday. Worldwide cases jumped up, USA cases jumped up, Deaths jumped up.
Italy still going down. Spain seems to be going over the peak. The news said that we might see another surge after the Spring Break crowd has now returned home. I think 28 kids in Austin, Tx tested positive after a spring break trip.
Hmm. Doing a little more research, it seems that the US doubled the number of tests being done on March 25. And those tests have a few day lag, so this bump in the numbers must be related to that. That still doesn't explain the jump in worldwide deaths though.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:31 pm
by FSchmertz
And officials their are trying to blame the U.S. You can't trust them to report what's really going on there. Still trying to hide shit.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:32 pm
by Animal
FSchmertz wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:31 pm
And officials their are trying to blame the U.S. You can't trust them to report what's really going on there. Still trying to hide shit.
officials where? Edit: nevermind, you must have been reading that long post about Wuhan.
FSchmertz wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:31 pm
And officials their are trying to blame the U.S. You can't trust them to report what's really going on there. Still trying to hide shit.
officials where? Edit: nevermind, you must have been reading that long post about Wuhan.
Yeah, I'm the guy. The only one who reads shit like that, and actually accesses the links. And then searches for more info.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:02 pm
by beagleboy
Had a guy try and sell me on the idea that he caught the virus back in mid January in Utah and their company completely cycled through it with in February and March but didn't tell anyone. It's possible, highly unlikely. 99% chance they had the flu or another virus. To believe it, their entire company had it before the first case was confirmed in the state. Not buying it.
On the other hand I was told a group of Monsanto executives all came back from China in February and they each came down with a version of the flu and nobody was ever tested to see what they had. My brother in law said he was in a meeting with several of them before they showed symptoms.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:41 pm
by CaptQuint
"And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."
— Donald Trump, Feb. 26, 2020
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:46 pm
by Animal
"Remember what we're really trying to do here is avoid the massive disruption of closing everything down for two weeks, the way China did, the way Italy is doing."
--- Andrew Cuomo, March 8, 2020
Make a note of that date. March 8. You read it right.
