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Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:36 pm IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

WestTexasCrude wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:36 pm IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:38 pm

WestTexasCrude wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:36 pm IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:38 pm

WestTexasCrude wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:36 pm IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

megman wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:42 pm So I guess if they are cancelling July 4th celebrations that they now do not expect this to go away with warmer weather???

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:45 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:38 pm

WestTexasCrude wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:36 pm IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

yeah, that's the rub. if you hadn't done those things, then "what would have happened"? My guess is that it wouldn't have changed a hell of a lot for some of the country (Pecos county for example). But for other parts of the country, I have no doubt it would have been catastrophic. Let's look at NY for example.

In the state of New York (not the city of new york, the entire state). As of right now 1 out of every 113 people have had the virus. That is about 1%. Now they were very late (in Covid time) to react. They didn't react and start the social distancing, stay at home, etc until it was obviously too late. BUT, once they realized they were fucked, they did start those measures. Is that what stopped the rise after 3 weeks? Fuck if I know, but even in hindsight I wouldn't want to have taken that risk. Now, if we had done the same thing all over the US, we would have seen 3.2 million cases already instead of the 525,000 that we have. That's a lot. That would have completely fucked our hospitals, doctors, stockpiles, you fucking name it.

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:51 pm I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:57 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:51 pm I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

that's great. I suspect that many of the numbers around the country are going up or still holding at peaks is partly due to old test results just now coming in. A 3 week delay, in Covid time, is an eternity. Its just amazing how slow time seems to be moving.

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:45 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:38 pm

WestTexasCrude wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:36 pm IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

yeah, that's the rub. if you hadn't done those things, then "what would have happened"? My guess is that it wouldn't have changed a hell of a lot for some of the country (Pecos county for example). But for other parts of the country, I have no doubt it would have been catastrophic. Let's look at NY for example.

In the state of New York (not the city of new york, the entire state). As of right now 1 out of every 113 people have had the virus. That is about 1%. Now they were very late (in Covid time) to react. They didn't react and start the social distancing, stay at home, etc until it was obviously too late. BUT, once they realized they were fucked, they did start those measures. Is that what stopped the rise after 3 weeks? Fuck if I know, but even in hindsight I wouldn't want to have taken that risk. Now, if we had done the same thing all over the US, we would have seen 3.2 million cases already instead of the 525,000 that we have. That's a lot. That would have completely fucked our hospitals, doctors, stockpiles, you fucking name it.

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:01 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:57 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:51 pm I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

that's great. I suspect that many of the numbers around the country are going up or still holding at peaks is partly due to old test results just now coming in. A 3 week delay, in Covid time, is an eternity. Its just amazing how slow time seems to be moving.

Last week every county along the eastern border was that deep red color, I wanna see if it acts like a wave moving west.

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... s.aspx#map

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:10 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:01 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:57 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:51 pm I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

that's great. I suspect that many of the numbers around the country are going up or still holding at peaks is partly due to old test results just now coming in. A 3 week delay, in Covid time, is an eternity. Its just amazing how slow time seems to be moving.

Last week every county along the eastern border was that deep red color, I wanna see if it acts like a wave moving west.

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... s.aspx#map

No, (I don't think) you will see a spread or a "wave" across Pennsylvania. Pa is on the downhill side of this. The growth in PA peaked around April 4th.

From here on out you should see new case numbers below 10% and dropping.

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:13 pm
The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:17 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:13 pm
The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

i'm just giving my thoughts on it. and i'm not saying that you are not going to continue to have new cases. I said it should be below 10% (or 8.8% to be exact) from here on out. So, what you lose in people on the east side of the state no longer getting it, you might see increases in the middle. but those increases won't go over 10%. If that makes sense.

and I typed that wrong. The new cases peaked on April 9th (not april 4th).

CHEEZY17 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:12 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:17 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:13 pm
The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

i'm just giving my thoughts on it. and i'm not saying that you are not going to continue to have new cases. I said it should be below 10% (or 8.8% to be exact) from here on out. So, what you lose in people on the east side of the state no longer getting it, you might see increases in the middle. but those increases won't go over 10%. If that makes sense.

and I typed that wrong. The new cases peaked on April 9th (not april 4th).

Do you know if Michigan has reached its peak yet? I feel like we are leveling off.

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:20 pm

CHEEZY17 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:12 pm

Flumper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:17 pm

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:13 pm
The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

i'm just giving my thoughts on it. and i'm not saying that you are not going to continue to have new cases. I said it should be below 10% (or 8.8% to be exact) from here on out. So, what you lose in people on the east side of the state no longer getting it, you might see increases in the middle. but those increases won't go over 10%. If that makes sense.

and I typed that wrong. The new cases peaked on April 9th (not april 4th).

Do you know if Michigan has reached its peak yet? I feel like we are leveling off.

fuck, i thought you were the person that asked me for that a week ago. Yes, Michigan peaked on April 3rd. I posted a chart a day or two before that.

Burn1dwn wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:01 pm Sounds like short of a vaccine and/or herd immunity much, much more testing is the only "safe" way back to normal.

WestTexasCrude wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:17 pm I'll have to admit. There will be one huge positive that will come out of this cluster fuck. After almost 3 1/2 years of President Trump urging American manufactures to bring their jobs home, that globalization making cheap products in China to save a few bucks entails major risks. I believe the lessons have just been learned. Learn or perish.

CaptQuint wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:44 pm “This is a very brilliant enemy. You know, it’s a brilliant enemy. They develop drugs like the antibiotics. You see it. Antibiotics used to solve every problem. Now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can’t keep up with it."

President Donald John Trump. (Germ Expert)

FSchmertz wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:19 pm

Burn1dwn wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:01 pm Sounds like short of a vaccine and/or herd immunity much, much more testing is the only "safe" way back to normal.

Yep, and not just testing to find out whether you're infected (and isolating the infected and contacts), but testing to find out if you've been infected and recovered (i.e. antibody testing)

megman wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:21 pm

WestTexasCrude wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:17 pm I'll have to admit. There will be one huge positive that will come out of this cluster fuck. After almost 3 1/2 years of President Trump urging American manufactures to bring their jobs home, that globalization making cheap products in China to save a few bucks entails major risks. I believe the lessons have just been learned. Learn or perish.

Your iPhone will never be made in USA. Mark those words down....