Bad day for Boeing

[AnalHamster]

That's very persuasive, particularly given your history of false pronouncements on this topic. Was it another secret email or the same one that told you the black boxes are in Germany?

[AnalHamster]

Ethiopian's CEO said today that the MCAS system had engaged during the flight. Meanwhile Boeing have been testing their software fix in simulators, which is simple common sense measures like taking data from both AOA sensors instead of just one and disabling the kamikaze if they disagree, reducing the number of times it will dive against pilot instructions, and the duration of each dive. Major boob not to have done at least the first part in the first place. I mean it's really just a programming boob that should be obvious to anyone isn't it? You have two sensors giving the same data, it is literally a few lines of code to check them both instead of just one and add an error code and escape hatch if they disagree. It would take me 10 minutes to write and check, 60 if it was in an unfamiliar language. There's just no excuse.

The FAA will probably just rubber stamp, but other regulators are going to be interested in the stall problem MCAS was introduced to fix and the increased risk of that happening instead during an MCAS failure. Good times for airbus.

edit - per NYT some data from boeing's new sim tests: although pilots primed and ready for the kamikaze system engaging were able to disable it to avert disaster, the time from engaging to unrecoverable nosedive in the lion air real world example was just 40 seconds without pilot opposition. The pilots extended that to several minutes by fighting the system but they didn't know the system existed and it kept reengaging until it got them. Fucking insane.

[AnalHamster]

NYT today - per sources who have seen the black box data the ethiopian crash also involved faulty sensor data triggering the aggressive MCAS kamikaze system. Looks like the preliminary report is on the way biker, you might want to share your secret emails revealing what really happened before it's too late and they just go with the actual data.

[CaptQuint]

NYT today - per sources who have seen the black box data the ethiopian crash also involved faulty sensor data triggering the aggressive MCAS kamikaze system. Looks like the preliminary report is on the way biker, you might want to share your secret emails revealing what really happened before it's too late and they just go with the actual data.

Are the Emails in France? Or Germany?

[AnalHamster]

NYT today - per sources who have seen the black box data the ethiopian crash also involved faulty sensor data triggering the aggressive MCAS kamikaze system. Looks like the preliminary report is on the way biker, you might want to share your secret emails revealing what really happened before it's too late and they just go with the actual data.

Are the Emails in France? Or Germany?

I expect the real emails are on Clinton's server

[FSchmertz]

I also want to know why sensors on essentially new planes are going bad.

I think the two sensors should be from different sources along with monitoring both. And maybe add a third sensor too.

[AnalHamster]

All sensors fail from time to time. That's why you have to build in redundancies with critical systems, Boeing failed to do that and failed to recognise a system that could kill everyone aboard in 40 seconds was critical. And the FAA which farmed out their work to Boeing to save costs then failed to catch it.

Boeing has delayed their software fix again. It's a pretty straightforward bit of coding - take readings from 2 sensors instead of 1, don't kamikaze if they disagree, and tell the pilots what the plane thinks is happening. I'm guessing the hold up is that implementing the simple fix means they reintroduce the stall problem from the bigger engines on a 50 year old airframe that wasn't designed to take them. Major pilot retraining costs for airlines if they can't get around it, with boeing on the hook for it.

[AnalHamster]

From a press conference about the preliminary ethiopia crash report the plane repeatedly entered uncommanded nose dives and pilot error is ruled out.

Naturally some people would want to wait and see the full report, but I think biker should be satisfied with a brief summary from someone who read it.

[dot]

But his emails tell him an entirely different story.

[AnalHamster]

FYI...It will come out soon that this accident has nothing to do with 737 Max supposed flaw.

Bet?

Will the 'supposed flaw' also be ruled out in the other crash that happened shortly after takeoff and showed the same rapid changes in altitude?

Sure. Outline the bet. From what I’m hearing it’s either wing flap failure or pilot error

Pretty simple, faulty sensor data causing MCAS to repeatedly activate sending the plane into repeated dives to correct non existent stalls was a major factor in both crashes. One month avatar with the crash investigation report being decisive, null and void if no cause determined.

In

Preliminary report is in- just the facts ma'am:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... ocument/p1

The left AOA sensor started giving bad data shortly after takeoff and remained telling the computers the plane was at a very high angle for the rest of the flight. This triggered MCAS to push the nose down, it moves the stabiliser down, applies aft pressure to the stick and makes it harder to pull back on the stick. Pilots responded correctly by trimming back up, but it triggered again 20 seconds later, so they responded correctly by trimming back up and then cutting power to the trim system and attempting to manually trim back up further. They were unable to manually turn the wheel, possibly due to the force required at what was now high speed. The automatic system keeps trying to move the stabiliser to dive more, but now can't, but it can keep applying pressure to the sticks. In the last moments they had any control they restored power to try and electrically trim back up, but MCAS seized its opportunity and triggered again, and the dive from there was fatal.

As in the lionair crash a bunch of sensors on the same side went bad with the AOA, airspeed, altitude and flight director pitch bar. I expect they all use the bad data from AOA in their calculcations. That may be part of the holdup in rolling out a software fix, a single AOA failure leaves the pilots with two conflicting sets of data on a range of key readouts. Without a 3rd AOA that's a tricky one.

[AnalHamster]

Part of boeing's very simple proposed fix, disabling the autodive if the two AOA sensors disagree, would have saved the plane.

The fire in the hold isn't mentioned at all for some reason.

[CaptQuint]

[AnalHamster]

[AnalHamster]

I made a seamless and subtle background addition for biker's new avatar

[CaptQuint]

Photo of the black boxed being dropped off in Germany

[AnalHamster]

avatar sized

[CaptQuint]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/20/worl ... e=Homepage

Additional info from the first crash now the cockpit voice recorder was found, one of the poor bastards was looking in the flight manual trying to figure out what the hell was causing their plane to repeatedly pitch sharply down over 20 times, the other was praying which for some reason didn't work. Part of the auto dive system actually makes it harder to pull back on the yoke and counteract what the plane thinks you should be doing, so fatigue has to be a factor when it keeps happening like that.

There are factors beyond MCAS, the lionair flight had a known bad sensor for days that maintenance hadn't fixed, the ethiopia captain should have been acutely aware of the process to beat MCAS after the FAA issued an emergency airworthiness directive due to the lionair crash. Still looking like MCAS at the root of both crashes though, it repeatedly endlessly engages unless a multistage procedure to disable it is followed, and at least the first set of pilots had absolutely no idea it existed.

Huh, a lack of experience played a large factor it seems. Sounds like Uncle Biker nailed it again

Both pilot and copilot in the lionair crash were experienced, they just weren't informed about Boeing's new kamikaze system. The captain in the Ethiopia crash was the most experienced of all four. The problem was the kamikaze system.

I'm going to give you the same avatar as last time, still got a copy.

[AnalHamster]

Pilot error looks to have played a large part

How do you figure? It has actually been excluded by the investigators on the grounds that they correctly followed the procedures Boeing gave them. If you're referring to them attempting to use the electric trim again at the end, that was only after they found they could not do it manually yet needed to do it to save their aircraft.

Not relevant anyway if it was a contributing factor, which there is no evidence of, under the terms of the bet:
Pretty simple, faulty sensor data causing MCAS to repeatedly activate sending the plane into repeated dives to correct non existent stalls was a major factor in both crashes.

We now know that is precisely what happened. Both planes were downed by the anti-stall system malfunctioning due to a bad sensor. The Boeing CEO already admitted it, he must've emailed. Maybe check your spam folder?

[CaptQuint]

Yea, followings Boeing's policy is their fault

[CaptQuint]

"All of us at Boeing feel the immense gravity of these events across our company"

[AnalHamster]

Pilot error looks to have played a large part

How do you figure? It has actually been excluded by the investigators on the grounds that they correctly followed the procedures Boeing gave them. If you're referring to them attempting to use the electric trim again at the end, that was only after they found they could not do it manually yet needed to do it to save their aircraft.

Not relevant anyway if it was a contributing factor, which there is no evidence of, under the terms of the bet:
Pretty simple, faulty sensor data causing MCAS to repeatedly activate sending the plane into repeated dives to correct non existent stalls was a major factor in both crashes.

We now know that is precisely what happened. Both planes were downed by the anti-stall system malfunctioning due to a bad sensor. The Boeing CEO already admitted it, he must've emailed. Maybe check your spam folder?

Lets wait for the full report, but it appears to me that the pilots either panicked or were untrained on how to handle it

Well we know they were untrained in how to handle it because Boeing kept it a secret until after the first crash, didn't require simulator training for the new plane, and even the corrected procedures didn't work for the Ethiopia crew.

Well you know you lost but I guess you can technically interpret the wording to mean final report only and ignore the interim report and CEO admitting it and the fix being finished and rolled out before you will admit there was a problem. You know you lost the bet already though, due to the facts in the prelim report and the term 'major factor' instead of 'sole cause'. It'll probably take a year or so for the final report, and I will relentlessly taunt you with the incoming avatar in the interim. At least I will have time to improve the background plane crashes. Maybe I'll photoshop Baghdad Bob into a Welsh backdrop to honour the delay.

[Wut]

Did we not both agree to wait until the final report came out? Seems to me youre the one who wants to renege on the bet

I see two things happening here, Biker wants to wait for the full report a year or two from here, and he's also going to try to blame the pilot's response to the kamikaze controls rather than the fact that the controls were in auto-kamikaze mode.

[AnalHamster]

Did we not both agree to wait until the final report came out? Seems to me youre the one who wants to renege on the bet

Pretty simple, faulty sensor data causing MCAS to repeatedly activate sending the plane into repeated dives to correct non existent stalls was a major factor in both crashes. One month avatar with the crash investigation report being decisive, null and void if no cause determined.

Just specified crash investigation report. The preliminary report is now out and proves that MCAS responding, again, to a faulty AOA sensor is what caused the fatal dive. You don't think that qualifies as a major factor in the crash? If you recall you asserted that it had nothing to do with the MCAS system and claimed it was wing flap failure or pilot error, based on your secret sources. As I said, you're doing a time delay welch. Feel free, it'll give me time to work on enhancing your avatar and regularly remind you what's a' comin'.

I expect the Boeing CEO was just doing PR when he admitted what the problem was, and secretly emailed you the real problem. Just out of interest are you refuting the report findings that the AOA sensor went haywire triggering the MCAS system to repeatedly nose down until the plane hit the dirt? Or claiming there's some secret cause they missed? Or that the pilots could possibly have tried something else not in their procedures and not doing so means the kamikaze system wasn't a major factor?

[AnalHamster]

Sure, welch away, it really just makes the choice of baghdad bob even more apt.


Just out of interest are you refuting the report findings that the AOA sensor went haywire triggering the MCAS system to repeatedly nose down until the plane hit the dirt? Or claiming there's some secret cause they missed? Or that the pilots could possibly have tried something else not in their procedures and not doing so means the kamikaze system wasn't a major factor?

You can't answer without admitting you lost, classic biker. Off you run

[AnalHamster]

Sure, welch away, it really just makes the choice of baghdad bob even more apt.


Just out of interest are you refuting the report findings that the AOA sensor went haywire triggering the MCAS system to repeatedly nose down until the plane hit the dirt? Or claiming there's some secret cause they missed? Or that the pilots could possibly have tried something else not in their procedures and not doing so means the kamikaze system wasn't a major factor?

You can't answer without admitting you lost, classic biker. Off you run

The smoke seen from the EA crash still has not been accounted for (or disproven). Not sure why you want to jump to conclusions

It has been discounted. You can tell because there is no mention of it in the report, no smoke or fire alarms of any kind.

Let's try an easy one, are you denying that the AOA sensor gave bad data triggering the MCAS system? Since a full log of the AOA data has been pulled from the black boxes and every AND event logged and put in the report, that's kind of a hard one to deny, no? Is it jumping to conclusions to state as fact that those things happened?