UJRefugees.net

Sunday, January 24
Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-3.5)
Buffalo at Kansas City (-3)

Tampa Bay + 3.5
Kansas City -3

You have to think that State Farm is going to be putting some voodoo on these games to make sure its Green Bay v KC in the State Farm Commercial Super Bowl.

Tampa +3.5
Buffalo +3

Bills
Packers

KC -3
Tampa +3.5

Tampa Bay +3.5
Buffalo +3

Green Bay (-3.5)
Buffalo (+3)

Why kick a field goal with 2 minutes left down by 8?

Since the beginning of the Super Bowl era (almost 60 years), the league has never had a home team hosting until now. Most thought since the last 50 has been tickets mainly for sponsors, corps. etc it wouldn't matter. This year it may with a 22,000 crowd cap, mostly local fans.

CentralTexasCrude wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:38 am Since the beginning of the Super Bowl era (almost 60 years), the league has never had a home team hosting until now. Most thought since the last 50 has been tickets mainly for sponsors, corps. etc it wouldn't matter. This year it may with a 22,000 crowd cap, mostly local fans.

i highly doubt they will count vaccinated people toward the crowd cap. i can't imagine why they would.

Wut wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:05 pm Why kick a field goal with 2 minutes left down by 8?

yeah, i really don't understand that unless your computers told you the 2 point chances were slim to none.

megman wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:21 am KC -3
Tampa +3.5

good job!

Animal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:06 am

Wut wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:05 pm Why kick a field goal with 2 minutes left down by 8?

yeah, i really don't understand that unless your computers told you the 2 point chances were slim to none.

Take the field goal. Hold Tampa to a 3 and out. Give Rodgers the ball back with 1:30 left on the clock.
It was a long shot for sure, but I can see why they did it.

Reservoir Dog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:14 am

Animal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:06 am

Wut wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:05 pm Why kick a field goal with 2 minutes left down by 8?

yeah, i really don't understand that unless your computers told you the 2 point chances were slim to none.

Take the field goal. Hold Tampa to a 3 and out. Give Rodgers the ball back with 1:30 left on the clock.
It was a long shot for sure, but I can see why they did it.

Yeah, that part is pretty obvious. But if you are betting it all on your ability to hold Tampa to a 3 and out, then why not go for it on 4th down and if you fuck that up you will hold them to 3 and out.

Animal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:06 am

megman wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:21 am KC -3
Tampa +3.5

good job!

I owe everything to Wut.

Animal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:20 am

Reservoir Dog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:14 am

Animal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:06 am

Wut wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:05 pm Why kick a field goal with 2 minutes left down by 8?

yeah, i really don't understand that unless your computers told you the 2 point chances were slim to none.

Take the field goal. Hold Tampa to a 3 and out. Give Rodgers the ball back with 1:30 left on the clock.
It was a long shot for sure, but I can see why they did it.

Yeah, that part is pretty obvious. But if you are betting it all on your ability to hold Tampa to a 3 and out, then why not go for it on 4th down and if you fuck that up you will hold them to 3 and out.

Yeah, there's that. But they had 1st down on the Tampa 8. 1st down... nothing. 2nd down... nothing. 3rd down... nothing. It wasn't looking very good.
Take the field goal then play for the win instead of playing for a tie.
That's all I can figure.

Reservoir Dog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:29 am

Animal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:20 am

Reservoir Dog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:14 am

Animal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:06 am

Wut wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:05 pm Why kick a field goal with 2 minutes left down by 8?

yeah, i really don't understand that unless your computers told you the 2 point chances were slim to none.

Take the field goal. Hold Tampa to a 3 and out. Give Rodgers the ball back with 1:30 left on the clock.
It was a long shot for sure, but I can see why they did it.

Yeah, that part is pretty obvious. But if you are betting it all on your ability to hold Tampa to a 3 and out, then why not go for it on 4th down and if you fuck that up you will hold them to 3 and out.

Yeah, there's that. But they had 1st down on the Tampa 8. 1st down... nothing. 2nd down... nothing. 3rd down... nothing. It wasn't looking very good.
Take the field goal then play for the win instead of playing for a tie.
That's all I can figure.

I have no doubt their logic was sound. Those guys study that shit exponentially to what we understand. I was listening on the radio driving, so I wasn't all that aware of the 3 plays prior to the decision. Momentum is one thing that computers can't measure. Only coaches can gauge that in the moment.

You gotta go for it on that 4th down. Worst case scenario is they turn it over on downs DEEP in Tampa territory. Then you hold Brady and get it back. There is no difference in losing by 8 or losing by 5.

CHEEZY17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:27 pm You gotta go for it on that 4th down. Worst case scenario is they turn it over on downs DEEP in Tampa territory. Then you hold Brady and get it back. There is no difference in losing by 8 or losing by 5.

I have to agree after thinking about it. If your entire premise is that you truly believe you can hold the other team to 3 and out, which would have to be the case if you kick a field goal, knowing you MUST get a TD in less than 2 minutes, then the logic only makes sense to go for it on 4th down.

First of all, you are on the 8 yard line. You can't get a much better location to score a TD from than that. If it works, you try to go for 2 and if you get it you are golden. If you fail then you still hold them to a 3 and out and now all you need is a field goal rather than a TD.

If you fail at the 4th down, then you have them pinned on the 8 yard line, instead of the 20 or 25 yard line that you would have had if you kicked off after a field goal. In terms of clock management, field position, and odds on scoring, it makes so much more sense to go for it on 4th down than kicking a field goal.

That is going to be one of those "what if" questions that entire team will be asking themselves for a looooong time.

megman wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:25 am

Animal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:06 am

megman wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:21 am KC -3
Tampa +3.5

good job!

I owe everything to Wut.

We’re a team.

Animal wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:01 pm Tampa Bay + 3.5
Kansas City -3
2-0-0

Biker wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:07 pm Tampa +3.5
Buffalo +3
1-1-0

Wut wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:32 pm Bills
Packers
0-2-0

megman wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:21 am KC -3
Tampa +3.5
2-0-0

CHEEZY17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:23 pm Tampa Bay +3.5
Buffalo +3
1-1-0

Reservoir Dog wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:35 pm Green Bay (-3.5)
Buffalo (+3)
0-2-0

OVERALL STANDINGS

Biker 56-38-2
Megman 51-41-4
Cheezy 49-45-2
B-Tender 47-46-3
Wut 40-52-4
Flumper 42-52-2
Res Dog 39-55-2
Hawkfan 36-59-1

The Grand Slam Club:
The O-fer Club: B-Tender, Res Dog

shouldn't megman be in the grand slam club?