The US is headed for a deep depression
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2026 4:37 pm
If Trump doesnt call off this war with Iran we are headed for a deep depression.
And I think it actually might already be too late, but I hope I'm wrong.
So I've done quite a bit of research, and this is the worst case scenario:
Trump claims he controls the Strait of Hormuz (which from now on I will refer to as SOH).
The truth of the matter is he doesnt control shit.
How do I know this, its real easy to tell. Normally 100 to 150 cargo ships and oil tankers pass through SOH on a daily basis.
But since the war started only about 5 to 15 ships pass through daily.
You can check this for yourself (look under Inbound & Outbound Transits): https://insights.windward.ai/
This means 95% of ships arent making it through.
So what does this mean if most of the oil and natural gas tankers cant get through the SOH??
It means that every day that goes by the price of oil and LNG is going to keep going up (oil more so than LNG, but still).
Iran has said they will wait this out until Trump leaves office in January of 2029. But thats still 2 years and 4 months away.
In the meantime the price of gas and diesel will keep going up every day.
You can check the daily increases here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
And there's not a damn thing Trump can do about it, unless he wants to start a ground war, but that will probably makes matters even worse because no insurance company is going to insure oil tankers passing through the SOH.
So I ran things through AI on how the price of oil would affect the US economy if it keeps going up and reaches $150 per barrel or more.
And this is what it spit out. Warning: you're not gonna like it:
Currently BRENT crude oil is at $105.
If it reaches $120-130 this is what economists predict:
$120 – $130 per barrel (The Recession Trigger): At this level, firms like Wells Fargo Securities and Bank of America note that consumer confidence erodes. Higher costs at the pump act as a direct tax on consumers, choking discretionary spending and triggering a standard, moderate recession.
If it reaches $140-150 this is what economists predict:
$140 – $150 per barrel (The Severe Downturn): According to analyses from Oxford Economics and BlackRock, sustained prices in this range would bring the U.S. economy to a standstill. It would spark aggressive inflation, force the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates destructively high, and severely contract global GDP
If it reaches $200+ this is what economists predict:
$200+ per barrel (The Systemic Crash): This is the threshold for a true collapse. Projections by The Conference Board indicate that $200 oil—likely triggered only by catastrophic structural disruptions, such as a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz or major destruction of global energy infrastructure—would cause spiraling global hyper-inflation, a complete breakdown of transport logistics, mass corporate bankruptcies, and a profound economic depression.
The problem is Iran has publicly said they will wait this thing out.
The US cant wait this out. At least not without triggering a total collapse of its economy.
Currently the price of gas and diesel are going up by about 3 to 5 cents a day
See here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
You can do the math and calculate how much gas and diesel will cost by next year if it keeps going at this rate.
It will simply become unaffordable for most people, and for most trucking companies.
I can also see airline companies going bankrupt because nobody can afford to fly anymore.
So there you have it.
Trump never should have started this war.
Now we're stuck with it
And I think it actually might already be too late, but I hope I'm wrong.
So I've done quite a bit of research, and this is the worst case scenario:
Trump claims he controls the Strait of Hormuz (which from now on I will refer to as SOH).
The truth of the matter is he doesnt control shit.
How do I know this, its real easy to tell. Normally 100 to 150 cargo ships and oil tankers pass through SOH on a daily basis.
But since the war started only about 5 to 15 ships pass through daily.
You can check this for yourself (look under Inbound & Outbound Transits): https://insights.windward.ai/
This means 95% of ships arent making it through.
So what does this mean if most of the oil and natural gas tankers cant get through the SOH??
It means that every day that goes by the price of oil and LNG is going to keep going up (oil more so than LNG, but still).
Iran has said they will wait this out until Trump leaves office in January of 2029. But thats still 2 years and 4 months away.
In the meantime the price of gas and diesel will keep going up every day.
You can check the daily increases here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
And there's not a damn thing Trump can do about it, unless he wants to start a ground war, but that will probably makes matters even worse because no insurance company is going to insure oil tankers passing through the SOH.
So I ran things through AI on how the price of oil would affect the US economy if it keeps going up and reaches $150 per barrel or more.
And this is what it spit out. Warning: you're not gonna like it:
Currently BRENT crude oil is at $105.
If it reaches $120-130 this is what economists predict:
$120 – $130 per barrel (The Recession Trigger): At this level, firms like Wells Fargo Securities and Bank of America note that consumer confidence erodes. Higher costs at the pump act as a direct tax on consumers, choking discretionary spending and triggering a standard, moderate recession.
If it reaches $140-150 this is what economists predict:
$140 – $150 per barrel (The Severe Downturn): According to analyses from Oxford Economics and BlackRock, sustained prices in this range would bring the U.S. economy to a standstill. It would spark aggressive inflation, force the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates destructively high, and severely contract global GDP
If it reaches $200+ this is what economists predict:
$200+ per barrel (The Systemic Crash): This is the threshold for a true collapse. Projections by The Conference Board indicate that $200 oil—likely triggered only by catastrophic structural disruptions, such as a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz or major destruction of global energy infrastructure—would cause spiraling global hyper-inflation, a complete breakdown of transport logistics, mass corporate bankruptcies, and a profound economic depression.
The problem is Iran has publicly said they will wait this thing out.
The US cant wait this out. At least not without triggering a total collapse of its economy.
Currently the price of gas and diesel are going up by about 3 to 5 cents a day
See here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
You can do the math and calculate how much gas and diesel will cost by next year if it keeps going at this rate.
It will simply become unaffordable for most people, and for most trucking companies.
I can also see airline companies going bankrupt because nobody can afford to fly anymore.
So there you have it.
Trump never should have started this war.
Now we're stuck with it
