The US is headed for a deep depression

[BombaySapphire]

If Trump doesnt call off this war with Iran we are headed for a deep depression.
And I think it actually might already be too late, but I hope I'm wrong.

So I've done quite a bit of research, and this is the worst case scenario:

Trump claims he controls the Strait of Hormuz (which from now on I will refer to as SOH).
The truth of the matter is he doesnt control shit.
How do I know this, its real easy to tell. Normally 100 to 150 cargo ships and oil tankers pass through SOH on a daily basis.
But since the war started only about 5 to 15 ships pass through daily.
You can check this for yourself (look under Inbound & Outbound Transits): https://insights.windward.ai/

This means 95% of ships arent making it through.

So what does this mean if most of the oil and natural gas tankers cant get through the SOH??
It means that every day that goes by the price of oil and LNG is going to keep going up (oil more so than LNG, but still).
Iran has said they will wait this out until Trump leaves office in January of 2029. But thats still 2 years and 4 months away.
In the meantime the price of gas and diesel will keep going up every day.
You can check the daily increases here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/

And there's not a damn thing Trump can do about it, unless he wants to start a ground war, but that will probably makes matters even worse because no insurance company is going to insure oil tankers passing through the SOH.

So I ran things through AI on how the price of oil would affect the US economy if it keeps going up and reaches $150 per barrel or more.
And this is what it spit out. Warning: you're not gonna like it:

Currently BRENT crude oil is at $105.

If it reaches $120-130 this is what economists predict:

$120 – $130 per barrel (The Recession Trigger): At this level, firms like Wells Fargo Securities and Bank of America note that consumer confidence erodes. Higher costs at the pump act as a direct tax on consumers, choking discretionary spending and triggering a standard, moderate recession.


If it reaches $140-150 this is what economists predict:

$140 – $150 per barrel (The Severe Downturn): According to analyses from Oxford Economics and BlackRock, sustained prices in this range would bring the U.S. economy to a standstill. It would spark aggressive inflation, force the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates destructively high, and severely contract global GDP


If it reaches $200+ this is what economists predict:

$200+ per barrel (The Systemic Crash): This is the threshold for a true collapse. Projections by The Conference Board indicate that $200 oil—likely triggered only by catastrophic structural disruptions, such as a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz or major destruction of global energy infrastructure—would cause spiraling global hyper-inflation, a complete breakdown of transport logistics, mass corporate bankruptcies, and a profound economic depression.

The problem is Iran has publicly said they will wait this thing out.
The US cant wait this out. At least not without triggering a total collapse of its economy.

Currently the price of gas and diesel are going up by about 3 to 5 cents a day
See here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/

You can do the math and calculate how much gas and diesel will cost by next year if it keeps going at this rate.
It will simply become unaffordable for most people, and for most trucking companies.
I can also see airline companies going bankrupt because nobody can afford to fly anymore.

So there you have it.
Trump never should have started this war.
Now we're stuck with it

[AnalHamster]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country.

[BombaySapphire]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country

That would be a good start, but it wont end the Iran war or the SOH blockade

[AnalHamster]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country

That would be a good start, but it wont end the Iran war or the SOH blockade

It's a simple enough solution, give them the 1% they asked for. That's the price of trumps fuck up. After five years or so there will be pipeline alternatives.

[BombaySapphire]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country

That would be a good start, but it wont end the Iran war or the SOH blockade

It's a simple enough solution, give them the 1% they asked for. That's the price of trumps fuck up. After five years or so there will be pipeline alternatives.

Q. How many oil pipelines would have to be built in the middle-east to be sufficient to bypass the Strait of Hormuz as an alternative shipping route??

A. https://tinyurl.com/4k3ksw7j

To completely bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East would need to build between 7 and 10 additional ultra-large crude oil pipelines, assuming each has a maximum capacity of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day (bpd).

Replacing this critical maritime corridor exclusively with overland pipelines is highly impractical due to the massive volume of oil that moves through the strait

[BombaySapphire]

Also as the Houthis have proven, oil pipelines can become terrorist targets.
You blow them all up and now you got no oil going anywhere, plus an environmental disaster

[Biker]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country.

You don’t understand our system of government

[AnalHamster]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country.

You don’t understand our system of government

I think it is you who doesn't grasp that. 3 coequal branches to act as checks and balances was the intention. It can't seriously be argued that Congress hasn't abdicated to the king and is currently totally ineffective as a check due to corruption and cowardice. Meanwhile the judicial branch by it's nature takes longer to corrupt but has already been stacked with chumpers leading to some disastrous decisions accelerating the decline.

I frankly don't see your country surviving if control of Congress doesn't pass to the democrats in November. Unlikely they'll get enough to impeach the clown not they can at least halt some if the further damage.

Why won't you answer who you intend to vote for? Cognitive dissonance getting overwhelming?

[AnalHamster]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country.

You don’t understand our system of government

I think it is you who doesn't grasp that. 3 coequal branches to act as checks and balances was the intention. It can't seriously be argued that Congress hasn't abdicated to the king and is currently totally ineffective as a check due to corruption and cowardice. Meanwhile the judicial branch by it's nature takes longer to corrupt but has already been stacked with chumpers leading to some disastrous decisions accelerating the decline.

I frankly don't see your country surviving if control of Congress doesn't pass to the democrats in November. Unlikely they'll get enough to impeach the clown unless at least some extra republicans grow balls, but they can at least halt some of the damage he'll otherwise continue to do. You're fucking deluded if you can't see this is already the most destructive presidency in the history of your country, by a pretty fucking long way.

Why won't you answer who you intend to vote for? Cognitive dissonance getting overwhelming?

[BombaySapphire]

Things are looking good in Texas

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/sta ... 830266007/

[BombaySapphire]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country.

You don’t understand our system of government

I think it is you who doesn't grasp that. 3 coequal branches to act as checks and balances was the intention. It can't seriously be argued that Congress hasn't abdicated to the king and is currently totally ineffective as a check due to corruption and cowardice. Meanwhile the judicial branch by it's nature takes longer to corrupt but has already been stacked with chumpers leading to some disastrous decisions accelerating the decline.

I frankly don't see your country surviving if control of Congress doesn't pass to the democrats in November. Unlikely they'll get enough to impeach the clown unless at least some extra republicans grow balls, but they can at least halt some of the damage he'll otherwise continue to do. You're fucking deluded if you can't see this is already the most destructive presidency in the history of your country, by a pretty fucking long way.

Why won't you answer who you intend to vote for? Cognitive dissonance getting overwhelming?

Even if Trump is impeached, it then takes 2/3rd of the Senate to actually remove him for office, and thats never going to happen.
The impeachment process is more or less just for show, and to score political points. Other than that it lacks any power

[Biker]

Things are looking good in Texas

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/sta ... 830266007/

Believe it when I see it. Texas has been thru this before

[Biker]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country.

You don’t understand our system of government

I think it is you who doesn't grasp that. 3 coequal branches to act as checks and balances was the intention. It can't seriously be argued that Congress hasn't abdicated to the king and is currently totally ineffective as a check due to corruption and cowardice. Meanwhile the judicial branch by it's nature takes longer to corrupt but has already been stacked with chumpers leading to some disastrous decisions accelerating the decline.

I frankly don't see your country surviving if control of Congress doesn't pass to the democrats in November. Unlikely they'll get enough to impeach the clown unless at least some extra republicans grow balls, but they can at least halt some of the damage he'll otherwise continue to do. You're fucking deluded if you can't see this is already the most destructive presidency in the history of your country, by a pretty fucking long way.

Why won't you answer who you intend to vote for? Cognitive dissonance getting overwhelming?

Tell us, what economic activity is being restrained because Congress is held by the Republicans? Specifics will be suffice

And I’m never voting for Trump again. Never

[AnalHamster]

It's going to be total collapse with knock on effects around the world if chump doesn't get decisively wiped out in the midterms. Just look at the amount of damage he's done already. One last chance to save your country.

You don’t understand our system of government

I think it is you who doesn't grasp that. 3 coequal branches to act as checks and balances was the intention. It can't seriously be argued that Congress hasn't abdicated to the king and is currently totally ineffective as a check due to corruption and cowardice. Meanwhile the judicial branch by it's nature takes longer to corrupt but has already been stacked with chumpers leading to some disastrous decisions accelerating the decline.

I frankly don't see your country surviving if control of Congress doesn't pass to the democrats in November. Unlikely they'll get enough to impeach the clown unless at least some extra republicans grow balls, but they can at least halt some of the damage he'll otherwise continue to do. You're fucking deluded if you can't see this is already the most destructive presidency in the history of your country, by a pretty fucking long way.

Why won't you answer who you intend to vote for? Cognitive dissonance getting overwhelming?

Tell us, what economic activity is being restrained because Congress is held by the Republicans? Specifics will be suffice

And I’m never voting for Trump again. Never

All of it dumbass. The tariffs, trade wars and war in Iran could not happen if Congress had a backbone, and you are absolutely voting for trump to continue it you vote for any republican to cowardly to oppose him, which is pretty much all of them

[Biker]

Economic growth states otherwise but please, keep flailing away.

Good thing TDS is just a made up thing

[AnalHamster]

So you're in the 23% remaining that think this shit is good for the economy then?

[Biker]

So you're in the 23% remaining that think this shit is good for the economy then?

Which data is negative aside from inflation? I'll wait

[dot]

Bad faith lil bitch forgets day one grocery prices and America affordable again promises conveniently though it's not like he'll acknowledge that reality.

[BombaySapphire]

[Biker]

Bad faith lil bitch forgets day one grocery prices and America affordable again promises conveniently though it's not like he'll acknowledge that reality.

Dumbass beaner forgets the Biden inflation era.

[dot]

Dumbass beaner forgets the Biden inflation era.

Bad faith lil bitch forgets the inflation and economic conditions handed off to Biden from convicted felon rapist conman term one. Bad faith lil bitch also forgets where stats rested upon Biden's last day in office versus now. Bad faith lil bitch still can't answer for day one promises never coming to fruition hence the deflection. But bad faith lil bitch will do anything to keep from touching the verdicts on his massive voter fraud claims so bad faith lil bitch will gladly deflect anywhere else to muddy the waters of his poor choices. Why does the little cowardly bad faith traitorous disingenuous bitch keep pretending like he has any standards around here anymore?

[BombaySapphire]

Brent is back down to $100.2

https://oilprice.com/