Wuhan Coronavirus

[WestTexasCrude]

IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

[CaptQuint]

IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

[megman]

So I guess if they are cancelling July 4th celebrations that they now do not expect this to go away with warmer weather???

[WestTexasCrude]

IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

Yeah, I get that. Totally true. Time to get everybody back to work using the same cautions and procedures.

[Animal]

IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

yeah, that's the rub. if you hadn't done those things, then "what would have happened"? My guess is that it wouldn't have changed a hell of a lot for some of the country (Pecos county for example). But for other parts of the country, I have no doubt it would have been catastrophic. Let's look at NY for example.

In the state of New York (not the city of new york, the entire state). As of right now 1 out of every 113 people have had the virus. That is about 1%. Now they were very late (in Covid time) to react. They didn't react and start the social distancing, stay at home, etc until it was obviously too late. BUT, once they realized they were fucked, they did start those measures. Is that what stopped the rise after 3 weeks? Fuck if I know, but even in hindsight I wouldn't want to have taken that risk. Now, if we had done the same thing all over the US, we would have seen 3.2 million cases already instead of the 525,000 that we have. That's a lot. That would have completely fucked our hospitals, doctors, stockpiles, you fucking name it.

[Animal]

So I guess if they are cancelling July 4th celebrations that they now do not expect this to go away with warmer weather???

i honestly don't know what "they" expect. i have heard so many conflicting predictions, etc. I do know this much. the ride up the curve is a hell of a lot faster and steeper than the ride down.

[CaptQuint]

IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

yeah, that's the rub. if you hadn't done those things, then "what would have happened"? My guess is that it wouldn't have changed a hell of a lot for some of the country (Pecos county for example). But for other parts of the country, I have no doubt it would have been catastrophic. Let's look at NY for example.

In the state of New York (not the city of new york, the entire state). As of right now 1 out of every 113 people have had the virus. That is about 1%. Now they were very late (in Covid time) to react. They didn't react and start the social distancing, stay at home, etc until it was obviously too late. BUT, once they realized they were fucked, they did start those measures. Is that what stopped the rise after 3 weeks? Fuck if I know, but even in hindsight I wouldn't want to have taken that risk. Now, if we had done the same thing all over the US, we would have seen 3.2 million cases already instead of the 525,000 that we have. That's a lot. That would have completely fucked our hospitals, doctors, stockpiles, you fucking name it.

I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

[Animal]

I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

that's great. I suspect that many of the numbers around the country are going up or still holding at peaks is partly due to old test results just now coming in. A 3 week delay, in Covid time, is an eternity. Its just amazing how slow time seems to be moving.

[Burn1dwn]

Sounds like short of a vaccine and/or herd immunity much, much more testing is the only "safe" way back to normal.

[CaptQuint]

I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

that's great. I suspect that many of the numbers around the country are going up or still holding at peaks is partly due to old test results just now coming in. A 3 week delay, in Covid time, is an eternity. Its just amazing how slow time seems to be moving.

Last week every county along the eastern border was that deep red color, I wanna see if it acts like a wave moving west.

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... s.aspx#map

[Wut]

Bermuda has 48 cases and 4 deaths. People that arrived in the last two weeks are being quarantined in a local hotel with room service.

[WestTexasCrude]

IF current predictions are 66,000 deaths in the US, and.....

IF the current death rate continues at 3.5%, then......

The math (66,000 / 0.035) tells us they are predicting that 1.9 million people will get infected. That's only 1.4 million to go. We are 25% there.

I know there was no way to predict anything at the beginning. But let me get this straight. We tanked our economy, threw 10's of millions out of work for something that will in the end infect less than 0.5% of the total population and kill 2-3 % of that. Yeah, doesn't sound like overkill to me. Totally legit.

And if we did not do those things there would be a lot more dead Americans

yeah, that's the rub. if you hadn't done those things, then "what would have happened"? My guess is that it wouldn't have changed a hell of a lot for some of the country (Pecos county for example). But for other parts of the country, I have no doubt it would have been catastrophic. Let's look at NY for example.

In the state of New York (not the city of new york, the entire state). As of right now 1 out of every 113 people have had the virus. That is about 1%. Now they were very late (in Covid time) to react. They didn't react and start the social distancing, stay at home, etc until it was obviously too late. BUT, once they realized they were fucked, they did start those measures. Is that what stopped the rise after 3 weeks? Fuck if I know, but even in hindsight I wouldn't want to have taken that risk. Now, if we had done the same thing all over the US, we would have seen 3.2 million cases already instead of the 525,000 that we have. That's a lot. That would have completely fucked our hospitals, doctors, stockpiles, you fucking name it.

Just my hunch. Pres Trump and State Governors will lift the national emergency Monday in selected area to start in a week or so. Least affected areas first (Pecos County, for example) with timed lifting in areas with higher but low rates. Obviously NY State will be last.

[Animal]

I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

that's great. I suspect that many of the numbers around the country are going up or still holding at peaks is partly due to old test results just now coming in. A 3 week delay, in Covid time, is an eternity. Its just amazing how slow time seems to be moving.

Last week every county along the eastern border was that deep red color, I wanna see if it acts like a wave moving west.

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... s.aspx#map

No, (I don't think) you will see a spread or a "wave" across Pennsylvania. Pa is on the downhill side of this. The growth in PA peaked around April 9th.

From here on out you should see new case numbers below 10% and dropping.

[CaptQuint]

I've been watching the number in my immediate area and they are dropping fast. But the recent influx of people from NY and NJ are making me feel there we be a rebound. Just say because it looks like my area has peaked that the bars and restaurants were to reopen tonight they would be rampant with the virus.

that's great. I suspect that many of the numbers around the country are going up or still holding at peaks is partly due to old test results just now coming in. A 3 week delay, in Covid time, is an eternity. Its just amazing how slow time seems to be moving.

Last week every county along the eastern border was that deep red color, I wanna see if it acts like a wave moving west.

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... s.aspx#map

No, (I don't think) you will see a spread or a "wave" across Pennsylvania. Pa is on the downhill side of this. The growth in PA peaked around April 4th.

From here on out you should see new case numbers below 10% and dropping.

The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

[Animal]

The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

i'm just giving my thoughts on it. and i'm not saying that you are not going to continue to have new cases. I said it should be below 10% (or 8.8% to be exact) from here on out. So, what you lose in people on the east side of the state no longer getting it, you might see increases in the middle. but those increases won't go over 10%. If that makes sense.

and I typed that wrong. The new cases peaked on April 9th (not april 4th).

[CHEEZY17]

The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

i'm just giving my thoughts on it. and i'm not saying that you are not going to continue to have new cases. I said it should be below 10% (or 8.8% to be exact) from here on out. So, what you lose in people on the east side of the state no longer getting it, you might see increases in the middle. but those increases won't go over 10%. If that makes sense.

and I typed that wrong. The new cases peaked on April 9th (not april 4th).

Do you know if Michigan has reached its peak yet? I feel like we are leveling off.

[Animal]

The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

i'm just giving my thoughts on it. and i'm not saying that you are not going to continue to have new cases. I said it should be below 10% (or 8.8% to be exact) from here on out. So, what you lose in people on the east side of the state no longer getting it, you might see increases in the middle. but those increases won't go over 10%. If that makes sense.

and I typed that wrong. The new cases peaked on April 9th (not april 4th).

Do you know if Michigan has reached its peak yet? I feel like we are leveling off.

fuck, i thought you were the person that asked me for that a week ago. Yes, Michigan peaked on April 3rd. I posted a chart a day or two before that.

[CHEEZY17]

The middle section of state hasn't even been touched yet

i'm just giving my thoughts on it. and i'm not saying that you are not going to continue to have new cases. I said it should be below 10% (or 8.8% to be exact) from here on out. So, what you lose in people on the east side of the state no longer getting it, you might see increases in the middle. but those increases won't go over 10%. If that makes sense.

and I typed that wrong. The new cases peaked on April 9th (not april 4th).

Do you know if Michigan has reached its peak yet? I feel like we are leveling off.

fuck, i thought you were the person that asked me for that a week ago. Yes, Michigan peaked on April 3rd. I posted a chart a day or two before that.

Yes, it was me. Just curious if your model has changed and if we're still following the expected path.

[CaptQuint]

“This is a very brilliant enemy. You know, it’s a brilliant enemy. They develop drugs like the antibiotics. You see it. Antibiotics used to solve every problem. Now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can’t keep up with it."

President Donald John Trump. (Germ Expert)

[WestTexasCrude]

I'll have to admit. There will be one huge positive that will come out of this cluster fuck. After almost 3 1/2 years of President Trump urging American manufactures to bring their jobs home, that globalization making cheap products in China to save a few bucks entails major risks. I believe the lessons have just been learned. Learn or perish.

[FSchmertz]

Sounds like short of a vaccine and/or herd immunity much, much more testing is the only "safe" way back to normal.

Yep, and not just testing to find out whether you're infected (and isolating the infected and contacts), but testing to find out if you've been infected and recovered (i.e. antibody testing)

[megman]

I'll have to admit. There will be one huge positive that will come out of this cluster fuck. After almost 3 1/2 years of President Trump urging American manufactures to bring their jobs home, that globalization making cheap products in China to save a few bucks entails major risks. I believe the lessons have just been learned. Learn or perish.

Your iPhone will never be made in USA. Mark those words down....

[FSchmertz]

“This is a very brilliant enemy. You know, it’s a brilliant enemy. They develop drugs like the antibiotics. You see it. Antibiotics used to solve every problem. Now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can’t keep up with it."

President Donald John Trump. (Germ Expert)

He definitely never heard the one about keeping your mouth shut and making people wonder if you're an idiot, or opening your mouth and removing all doubt!

[Animal]

Sounds like short of a vaccine and/or herd immunity much, much more testing is the only "safe" way back to normal.

Yep, and not just testing to find out whether you're infected (and isolating the infected and contacts), but testing to find out if you've been infected and recovered (i.e. antibody testing)

that's crazy. nobody is going to wait that long. i hope all of you people that were screaming the end of the world a few weeks ago aren't fixing to make that your new social mediademic.

[Reservoir Dog]

I'll have to admit. There will be one huge positive that will come out of this cluster fuck. After almost 3 1/2 years of President Trump urging American manufactures to bring their jobs home, that globalization making cheap products in China to save a few bucks entails major risks. I believe the lessons have just been learned. Learn or perish.

Your iPhone will never be made in USA. Mark those words down....

Has one of his predictions actually ever come true?